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A wild and crazy idea: Jake Arrieta, future Hall of Famer
- Updated: May 25, 2016
8:42 AM ET
This may sound a little preposterous, but let’s consider the idea: Does Jake Arrieta have any chance at making the Hall of Fame?
It sounds preposterous because Arrieta is already 30 years old, has just 64 career wins, and has had exactly one Hall of Fame-caliber season. He’s too old, it would seem, to start a run at Cooperstown. Plus, many pitchers have pitched at a level Arrieta did in 2015, at least for one season: Dwight Gooden, Kevin Appier, Bret Saberhagen, Ron Guidry, Jose Rijo, Jon Matlack, Vida Blue. All had one season of at least 8.7 WAR — which was Arrieta’s figure in 2015, when he went 22-7 with a 1.77 ERA — and while they were all excellent pitchers, none has sniffed Cooperstown.
Jake Arrieta hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in his last seven starts. Dennis Wierzbicki/USA Today Sports
But consider what we do know about Arrieta:
1. He can pitch at a high Hall of Fame level and he’s doing so again in 2016, sitting at 8-0 with a 1.29 ERA heading into Wednesday’s start.
2. He’s the best-conditioned pitcher in the game, with a workout regimen that includes Pilates, yoga, mobility training, meditation and a healthy diet. This doesn’t guarantee he’ll age well, but it has to be considered a positive attribute.
3. He’s not too old. Several Hall of Fame pitchers have reached Cooperstown more on what they did in their 30s than their 20s.
It’s that third item that suggests we’re not completely crazy. Here’s a chart of the 22 pitchers to accumulate the most WAR (via Baseball-Reference.com) from age 29 on:
Most WAR from Age 29 onPitcherWAR, 29+YearsCareer WARPct.HOF?Randy Johnson96.71993-2009104.392.7%YesPhil Niekro92.91968-198797.495.4%YesLefty Grove88.11929-1941109.980.2%YesRoger Clemens85.11992-2007139.461.0%NoGaylord Perry78.41968-198393.783.7%YesPete Alexander76.11916-1930117.065.0%YesCy Young72.71901-1911170.342.7%YesWarren Spahn72.31950-196592.678.1%YesCurt Schilling68.61996-200780.785.0%NoGreg Maddux63.91995-2008104.661.1%YesDazzy Vance63.01922-193562.5100.8%YesBob Gibson62.61965-197581.976.4%YesWalter …
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