2016 World Series of Poker Predictions, Part 1: Will Ferguson or Lederer Return?

The 2016 World Series of Poker is right around the corner, and the 47th annual WSOP will kick off official gold bracelet play on June 1. The Rio All-Suite Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas will once again be home to poker’s most prestigious tournament series, and this year there will be 69 official gold bracelet events.

The time leading up to another massive poker summer is always an exciting one, especially here in the PokerNews offices. As we enjoy doing every year, our team got together for a long list of 2016 WSOP predictions. For this year’s edition of our predictions piece, our team of staff analysts consist of PokerNews Editor-in-Chief Donnie Peters, Strategy Editor Martin Harris, PokerNews.NL Editor Frank Op de Woerd, staff editor Mo Nuwwarah, Remko Report host Remko Rinkema, and contributor Marty Derbyshire.

We’ll be doing these predictions in two parts. In the first part, we hit on big storylines, WSOP Player of the Year, big guns Phil Ivey, Daniel Negreanu, and Phil Hellmuth, and Howard Lederer and Chris Ferguson.

Here is the first of our 2016 WSOP PokerNews Staff Predictions.

1. What is your top storyline heading into the WSOP?

Peters: Originally, my top storyline going into this summer was going to be surrounding the Colossus II, but now that Lederer went and dropped that bomb of an apology letter, he might be the top storyline as everyone will definitely be waiting to see if he’ll show up or not. That will be his choice, but I’d prefer to not allow Lederer take over my thoughts going into the summer, so I’ll stick with the Colossus storyline.

The question is: How big will Colossus be? I’m going to take the over on 30,000 and hope the WSOP is prepared for such a large crowd. In the WSOP Twitch Town Hall last week, Jack Effel said capacity was around 30,000. The WSOP projected 11,500 last year and got 22,374, and all signs this year point to the event being much, much bigger.

Harris: The WSOP faces enormous logistic challenges, and every year seems to give itself new ones to complicate things even further as the schedule gets more and more packed. It seems every year during the first week or two the complaints and controversies emerge at such a rate that it seems the whole production is being threatened, kind of like a plane encountering heavy turbulence during its ascent prior to leveling off at a more steady cruising altitude. For that reason, heading into this year’s WSOP I’m most interested to see how smooth (or not smooth) the ride seems to be during the first 10 days or so before things settle.

Op de Woerd: For me, the top storyline going in is Dzmitry Urbanovich going for three bracelets. We’ve seen newcomers aiming for big targets before, but here’s a guy who’s already had a great deal of succes and going for the highest possible right away — not one, not two, but three bracelets! It’s a fun sweat going in. Just a grinding beast going to Vegas for nothing but glory and money. I don’t see him ever reaching his goal, but the storyline alone is cool enough.

Nuwwarah: My top storyline is the WSOP debut and accompanying prop bet of Urbanovich, where he stands to win $2 million from Vanessa Selbst if he can bink three bracelets. She has to be on the right side in a pure odds sense, but it would be fun to see this become a sweat.

Rinkema: Summer camp is back! The WSOP is my favorite time of the year, and the fact that it’s that time again makes me very excited. As a poker fan first, it’s one of those things I would hate to miss. Many amazing storylines will develop during the summer, and I’m looking forward to uncovering what lies ahead. If I had to pick a storyline coming in, I would say it’s probably that the changes the WSOP has made are a great thing to look forward to. The eQueue payout process, being able to wear headphones in the money, and Kevin “Kevmath” Mathers taking the reins of the social media accounts are all things I believe the overall product will benefit greatly from.

Derbyshire: In 2015, it was suggested that the WSOP had lost it’s luster. The organization has made a lot of player- and fan-friendly changes in an effort to get it back heading into 2016. I’m interested to see if they can run the Series free of the kind of mistakes, controversies, and public relations blunders that have plagued them in the past, returning the WSOP name to its former glory.

2. Which non-Main Event tournament are you looking forward to most?

Peters: I usually pick the $50,000 Poker Players’ Championship for this one, but with my anticipation of the Colossus being so big, that’s the tournament I’m looking forward to the most.

Harris: Among WSOP events, I’ll be most interested in the $111,111 High Roller for One Drop which starts a day before the first Day 1 flight of the Main Event and will steal some of the attention for those first few days of it. In truth, though, the non-Main Event tournament I’m most curious about will be a non-WSOP event, too — the $300,000 Super High Roller Bowl happening at the ARIA from May 29-June 1 (which also will steal considerable attention away from the WSOP as it cranks up).

Op de Woerd: Besides the high roller events, I’m most looking forward to the Tag Team tournament. The concept is one I believe in. I’ve played it before and it’s a ton of fun to team up in poker. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of strategy teams come up with, and what remarkable teams will jump in. I can already see some crazy match-ups and dynamics at the table. This should be a fun one to rail.

Nuwwarah: The Colossus. I’m curious to see if the numbers drawn last year have staying power or even increase, and if the WSOP has cleaned up the logistical issues from last year.

Rinkema: Every single year my answer to this question will be the same: the $50,000 Poker Players’ Championship. Being able to see the top players in the world compete at the highest level in a great variety of games is the pinnacle of the summer for me. It’s a shame ESPN no longer broadcasts it, but live streaming will do for me this year.

Derbyshire: Colossus II dominates the schedule in the early going and it will be interesting to see if they can draw over 25,000 players, confirming once again that the poker world is alive and well.

3. Who will win WSOP Player of the Year?

Peters: I’ll never be able to pick a one-trick pony who only players no-limit hold’em for this one, and this year will be no different. I’m going to go with Scott Clements. The two-time gold bracelet winner plays all the games well enough to contend at all times, and he’s always someone who racks up a handful of cashes each summer at the WSOP. But this year, I really look for Clements to shine in the 11 Omaha events on the schedule.

Harris: The question recalls another minor storyline left over from a year ago — will the criteria be the same for determining the WSOP POY (i.e., “powered” by the Global Poker Index)? However the POY is determined, I’m choosing Ismael Bojang this time as my pick. The German has 32 WSOP cashes and only started collecting them in 2012.

Op de Woerd: Urbanovich. He’s going to play everything he can. I’ve seen countless young players come to Vegas for the first time, and just about all of them broke down halfway through and were only seen with hanging shoulders busting tournament after tournament three weeks in. I hope Urbanovich is different and he can really make a splash. He told me he’s up for it, and doesn’t shy away from grinding for several weeks. No parties for him, no drinking, and that $2 million bet; all ingredients to make this a summer to remember for him. Even he doesn’t succeed in winning three bracelets, his skills in all the games and determination (and bankroll) to play everything should be good for a high ranking finish in the POY race.

Nuwwarah: Stephen Chidwick. The drought ends this year.

Rinkema: Chidwick. The man is ready to put in volume, and he’s shown many times that he’s only a few good run outs away …

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