2016 NBA Draft: 1st-Round Selection Order, Analyzing Top Upperclassmen Prospects

The NBA draft process is straightforward from here on out. For the first time since the NBA implemented the lottery more than three decades ago, the 2016 draft order will be entirely based on record.

The Philadelphia 76ers’ multiyear tank job finally paid off last Tuesday, as they won the No. 1 selection and the right to choose between LSU’s Ben Simmons and Duke’s Brandon Ingram. The Los Angeles Lakers go second and will take the leftover of the draft’s clear top two.

Ingram and Simmons each spent only a year in college, and potential No. 3 pick Dragan Bender’s been playing professionally overseas for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Other potential top-10 selections include Kentucky’s Jamal Murray, California’s Jaylen Brown and Marquette’s Henry Ellenson—all one-and-doners.

This falls in line with recent trends. Eleven of the first 13 picks in last year’s draft played one or zero seasons of college basketball. The first senior didn’t come off the board until No. 19 (Jerian Grant from Notre Dame). 

That won’t be the case in 2016—three upperclassmen may wind up going in the lottery on June 23. Let’s quickly take a look at those three players, along with another familiar name who may wind up hearing his name called in the first round.

Kris Dunn, PG, Providence (Big Board Ranking: 5)

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Kris Dunn is the best pure point guard in this class. If he were three years younger, we’d be talking about him as the clear No. 3 pick in the draft.

As it stands, his first two years at Providence were lost to injury. A torn labrum held him out until December of his freshman year, and he never quite got to 100 percent. Another shoulder injury cost him all but four games of his sophomore year; no one quite knew what to make of him when he returned.

Dunn emerged as a legit pro prospect in the meantime, taking advantage of his rehab time to turn into a well-rounded player. The 22-year-old’s more than two years removed from his last shoulder injury, and he improved his three-point percentage all the way to 37.2 on more than three attempts per game.

If Dunn ever becomes a semi-consistent outside shooter, he has All-Star potential. Measuring in at 6’4 ¼” with shoes with a 6’9 ½” wingspan and elite athleticism, Dunn’s a lockdown defender waiting to happen once he acclimates to the NBA game. He’s also going to fare far better in the slash-and-kick pro style over the more sluggish collegiate game; he was a pro playing a kid’s game last season.

Age, shot consistency and occasional carelessness with the ball are Dunn’s big knocks. Turnovers were down last season, but he still averaged 3.5 a game. Things are only going to get harder at the next level, and his shaky free-throw shooting is evidence he needs a lot more work on his shooting stroke.

Still, it’s hard to see any outcome where Dunn doesn’t wind up an NBA starter.

Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma (Big Board Ranking: 6)

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Everyone knows Buddy Hield. He’s the kid with the …

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