Florida lefty Puk goes No. 1 in latest mock Draft

The 2016 Draft is exceedingly difficult to project for a couple of reasons. No one has stamped himself as a clear-cut top-of-the-Draft option, and the deepest demographic for first-round talent is also the one that scares teams the most.

There are seven high school pitchers worthy of going in the first half of the first round, starting with the headliners on MLBPipeline.com’s Top 100 Draft list: New Jersey left-hander Jason Groome and Kansas righty Riley Pint. But the injury epidemic among young arms makes clubs leery of taking them early in the first round. A total of seven prep arms have been top-15 picks in the past three years, and only once in the last 44 Drafts have more than five been taken in the first 15 selections (six in 1998). 

• 2016 MLB Draft: June 9-11 on MLB Network, MLB.com

So most of those high school hurlers will go lower than they’re rated, and some could try to force their way out of the first round to fall to teams with large bonus pools who could pay them well above pick value in the supplemental first or early second rounds. Conversely, it’s not a deep year for college hitters or pitchers, but the demand for prospects who can deliver quicker returns will push some of those players higher in the Draft.

2016 Mock Drafts Date No. 1 pick Author May 19 Puk Callis May 12 Lewis Mayo May 2 Puk/Puk Callis/Mayo Dec. 2 Groome/Puk Callis/Mayo

1. Phillies: A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida

Puk has been inconsistent this spring, but at his best, he’s still a hulking lefty with a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider. He has pitched well three of the last four weekends, and he seems to be Philadelphia’s guy if he can stay on that roll. Plan B appears to be the top high school position player (California outfielder Mickey Moniak), with the best college position player (Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis) also in the running. Whoever it is, he’ll sign for well south of the assigned pick value of $9,015,500, putting the Phillies in position to spend big on later selections.

• Complete 2016 Draft order

2. Reds: Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee

Cincinnati would be very interested in Puk if the Phillies pass. If not, the Reds likely would choose between Senzel, the best pure hitter in the college ranks, and flashy Puerto Rican shortstop Delvin Perez, who has the highest ceiling in this prep crop.

3. Braves: Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer

Atlanta is the first team in play on a high school pitcher and prefers Pint to Groome. But with a shortage of college bats and a $12.4 million bonus pool that will allow the Braves to spend big on someone who drops to picks Nos. 40 and 44, the better play could be to grab Lewis here and pounce on a prep arm who drops.

4. Rockies: Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS (Carlsbad, Calif.)

Colorado is strongly linked to Moniak and several other outfielders. The next option could be Lewis, and if both are gone, the Rockies could turn to Louisville’s Corey Ray or California high schooler Blake Rutherford.

5. Brewers: Corey Ray, OF, Louisville

Milwaukee could take a shot on Groome or Pint, but it appears more inclined to pursue a bat. The Brewers are attached to every toolsy position player with any chance to go in the first round. In this scenario, their decision would come down to Ray vs. Perez.

6. Athletics: Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (N.J.) HS

There’s a lot of Senzel-to-Oakland talk if he’s available, though that doesn’t make a ton of sense for a so-so system with a lot of infielders (including 2014 first-rounder Matt Chapman, who’s not moving off the hot corner) and not much else. The A’s like Groome more than Pint and it’s hard to believe a big lefty with quality stuff and more polish than Puk is going to drop much further than this.

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7. Marlins: Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (Overland Park, Kan.)

If Pint is still on the board, he probably won’t get past Miami or Detroit. The Marlins also could consider a position player such as Ray or Perez.

8. Padres: Delvin Perez, SS, International Baseball Academy (Ceiba, P.R.)

San Diego GM A.J. Preller is willing to gamble on high ceilings, so he probably wouldn’t walk away from Groome. Perez fits that mold, too, as do high school right-handers Matt Manning (California) and Ian Anderson (New York) and prep lefty Braxton Garrett (Alabama).

9. Tigers: Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS (Sacramento, Calif.)

No early first-round talent has more helium right now than Manning, the son of a former NBA player who has a fresh arm capable of delivering 99-mph fastballs. With the way the top of the Draft is lining up, Detroit seems destined to get a prep pitcher. If Groome, Pint and …

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