2016 NBA Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions After Lottery Results

Trust the process. That’s the mantra the Philadelphia 76ers touted for nearly three full years before dumping the process overboard, pushing general manager Sam Hinkie out of power and revamping their front office.

Well, the process paid off Tuesday night.    

The odds finally turned out to be in the Sixers’ favor at the 2016 NBA draft lottery, as they won the third No. 1 overall selection in franchise history. The Los Angeles Lakers came in at No. 2, and the Boston Celtics rounded out the three picks determined by the drawing. The results were as chalk-heavy as you could get, with none of the teams outside the top three jumping up.

Regular-season records determined the remaining order of June 23’s draft. The Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves round out the top five. Although the lottery drawing only picks the top three, its results will have a massive impact on the futures of this year’s top prospects.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a full first-round mock draft now that the order is decided.

 

Mock Draft

 

Lottery Breakdown  1. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, SF/PF, LSU

The debate between Ben Simmons and Duke’s Brandon Ingram isn’t just narrative. There was a real chance, depending on which team won the lottery, the prohibitive No. 1 favorite would have dropped to No. 2.

That’s likely out the window now.

Simmons is the better prospect, has the higher ceiling and is a clean fit with the Sixers’ bare roster. His playmaking skills will make things vastly easier on the wing, and there’s enough infrastructure to allow him enough shooting to develop at his own pace. There will be times when spacing may get a little cramped with Simmons at the 3, but the kid has generational talent.

Simmons is 6’10”, handles the ball like a point guard, has an off-the-charts basketball IQ and found a way to put up big numbers at LSU despite a broken jumper. Don’t get me wrong—the ability to shoot a basketball is huge. Simmons is going to need to find a comfort zone (even if it’s only out to 18-20 feet) and start knocking down shots.

This is the moment Sixers fans have been waiting for. No need to overthink it.

 

2. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke

As far as consolation prizes go, Ingram’s a heck of a reward for finishing in second place. It’s been Ingram and Simmons battling for the top spot for months now, and there’s a legit argument that the Duke product is better for today’s game.

Ingram’s the closest thing we’ve seen to Kevin Durant since Durant himself. He’s a lanky (6’9″, 196 lbs), freakish scorer with a polished offensive game that’s ready for the NBA right now. Defense is going to be a work in progress, but Ingram’s going to be an All-Star on the back of his pure offensive brilliance.

He is already a 40 percent shooter from deep, flashed a promising willingness as a secondary facilitator and rebounded well for a guy with a Gumby build. Like Durant, Ingram will need to work on creating his own shot and adding strength to hit his stride.

That said, high-fives are all around in Los Angeles right now. The Lakers got to keep their pick and got another potential star to pair with D’Angelo Russell.  

 

3. Boston Celtics: Dragan Bender, PF, Croatia

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Bender’s going to spend the next month or so generating Kristaps Porzingis comparisons. That’s not fair. Porzingis was a better, more polished prospect. Bender is closer to what we thought Porzingis might be as a rookie—a little slow to develop, in need of real NBA seasoning—than the Porzingod reality.

But the two share similar traits. Bender is a slender (7’1″, 225 lbs), versatile forward who can stretch beyond the three-point arc, handle the ball in the open court and not look like stiff from an athletic standpoint. His experience is limited playing at a high level for Maccabi Tel Aviv, and the Celts will have to understand he won’t turn 19 until November.

This is a project pick. Like all projects, the ceiling is high, and the floor is low. It’s also a gamble Boston can afford to take. Brad Stevens already put his makeshift roster into perennial playoff status, and the Celtics could be major players on the free-agent market this summer.

Bender could wind up being the best player in this draft. At the least, he’s the best roll of the dice as Boston looks to land a superstar. (Don’t be surprised if Boston floats this pick in trade offers, though.)

 

4. Phoenix Suns: Henry Ellenson, PF/C, Marquette

Perhaps no top-10 pick was more dependent on the lottery than Ellenson. Things just needed to break his way. The Suns, Timberwolves and Pelicans have long been his most likely fits, as they each have a need for a stretch big man.

As it stands, Ellenson hit the jackpot. Phoenix will be hoping Bender falls in its direction come draft night, but its roster composition may wind up forcing GM Ryan McDonough to take a risk on Ellenson here. The Suns need a stretch 4 after trading a disgruntled Markieff Morris; Ellenson’s the best one remaining. 

Ellenson was the most anonymous elite prospect in the country last season. He spent his time putting up solid numbers on a forgettable Marquette team, struggling to shoulder the entire load amid a poor supporting cast. If we’re going to excuse his disappointing shooting numbers (he hit just 28.8 percent of his threes), it begins with pointing fingers elsewhere.

Ellenson has a good, consistent stroke for a big, and measuring at just under 7’0″ at the combine will help convince teams he can play center. There’s a bit of Kevin Love Lite to his game. He’s excellent in the low post, more athletic than his build would have you assume and even Lovian in his blase approach to defense. 

 

5. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jamal Murray, PG/SG, Kentucky

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