How Will England and Roy Hodgson Cope Without Danny Welbeck at Euro 2016?

It was all going so smoothly…too smoothly, if anything.

Leading up to the week of Roy Hodgson’s squad announcement, England’s preparation for UEFA Euro 2016 could hardly have been any better.

Ten wins from 10 in the qualification group—the only nation to do so—a remarkable 3-2 comeback victory in Berlin against Germany and a subtle inference that Wayne Rooney may not start at the tournament itself had buoyed the public’s spirit and heightened optimism heading into May.

But then disaster struck. As is often the way just before a major international tournament—and is often the way for most nations set to participate—a key player has been beset by injury, throwing the manager’s plans into disarray.

It may seem like an overstatement to some, but it is quite accurate to say Danny Welbeck’s knee injury, set to rule him out for nine months, could reshape everything Hodgson does this summer.

Hodgson has shown little loyalty to players during his time in charge of England, always willing to freshen up the squad and change the XI. Players who featured heavily early in his tenure such as Leighton Baines and Andros Townsend have played no part lately, with better, fitter and more in-form options usually rising to the fore.

But the former Fulham boss does have two “lieutenants,” if you will, and they take the form of two Arsenal players. Welbeck is a man he will always rely on, and to a slightly lesser extent, Jack Wilshere will be worked into any team where possible. The fact that one is now definitely out and the other is hardly match sharp will be of great worry to the national staff.

It had become clear over the course of the qualifiers and latest friendlies that the 4-3-3 formation would be England’s starting shape, and that the team would morph into a 4-4-2 diamond if a) they fall behind, or b) they couldn’t crack the shell of the opposition. That pattern became pretty set, with only a handful of instances in which England began with the diamond (Switzerland away, for example).

England’s genuine lack of wide options was always a threat to this plan, but in Welbeck and Raheem Sterling, Hodgson will have rightly felt he had two starting-calibre players who could carry out the role.

Specifically, Welbeck’s performances from the left of England’s 4-3-3 were one of the best parts of the qualifying campaign—not only because he attacks and links well, but because he’s willing to …

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