Signing Jake Arrieta to a long-term deal is the right choice for the Cubs

11:08 AM ET

CHICAGO — Time for another round of debating what Jake Arrieta’s next contract will look like. And for which team he’ll be providing his services. Just listen to talk radio or check your social media feed, as someone will have an opinion on it and — more than likely — five minutes later, you’ll see or hear a differing angle.

After Stephen Strasburg signed a seven-year, $175 million contract with the Washington Nationals, that deal thrust Arrieta’s situation back into the spotlight. What does a pitcher on perhaps the greatest run in history deserve? It’s what agent Scott Boras and Cubs president Theo Epstein need to figure out before the 30-year-old right-hander becomes a free agent after the 2017 season.

The reason you might be hearing differing opinions is because there are good points to be made both ways.

I won’t rehash it all here, but one side I don’t hear often enough is, if Arrieta leaves, who replaces him? The Cubs have a potential All-Star at every position and want to contend for the next five to 10 years, right? As with any front office, the Cubs’ has to plan ahead. Think of what happens after 2017: The contracts of John Lackey, Jason Hammel and Arrieta will all be up, assuming the Cubs pick up the option on Hammel for next season. Maybe they extend Hammel’s deal even further, though Lackey isn’t likely to return at age 39, which he’ll be in October 2017. And that’s the thing about predicting what scenarios will look like two years from now — especially on the mound. It’s very difficult.

The Cubs could also finally trade for a young, somewhat controllable pitcher. Or maybe Kyle Hendricks takes a huge leap forward or someone else emerges. But for practical purposes, let’s assume they’ll need two or three starting pitchers as they continue into the middle of their contending years with Kris Bryant & Co. coming into their primes.

Pitching still paves the path to championships. There will be names out there in free agency along with Arrieta, but none who can be considered elite right now. Rays right-hander Alex Cobb could return to form after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2015; he is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2017 season. But unless you love Michael Pineda of the Yankees, Ubaldo Jimenez of the Orioles or other second-tier guys to lead the Cubs’ rotation along with Jon …

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