UFC 198 Gaps in the Armor: How Stipe Miocic beats Fabricio Werdum

Stipe Miocic has just over six years of professional MMA experience under his belt, but at UFC 198 he will face one of the heavyweight division’s most enduring competitors.

Not only is Fabricio Werdum the UFC champion, but he is inarguably one of the greatest heavyweights of all time, having bested such towering figures as Fedor Emelianenko, Cain Velasquez, and Alistair Overeem over the course of his rambling 14 year career. Werdum is a dangerous finisher in all phases. He has submitted Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and knocked out Mark Hunt.

In short, beating him is a tall order for any challenger, Miocic included.

But no champion is invincible. Last year, Rafael Dos Anjos and TJ Dillashaw didn’t just upset the champions in their respective divisions, they dominated them. Holly Holm didn’t just pick Ronda Rousey apart, she blew her to bits. Luke Rockhold battered Chris Weidman; Chris Weidman crushed Anderson Silva–twice; and Conor McGregor ended the longest reign in UFC featherweight history thirteen seconds into the first round.

We’ve seen enough stunning upsets this year–in championship fights alone–to know that a dangerous, well-rounded heavyweight like Stipe Miocic is not to be counted out at UFC 198. All it takes is the right gameplan.

And that’s what we’re here for today. Over the course of this piece, we will identify the tactical choices Miocic needs to make in order to wrench the UFC belt from Werdum’s hands. The three keys to victory are as follows, in order of precedence.

1) Maintain critical distance2) Score takedowns against the fence3) Counter the jab

Now let’s take an in-depth look at each of these keys, and unravel the strategy that could carry Stipe Miocic to glory and UFC gold.

3 – Counter the jab

In his current six-fight winning streak, no strike has been as crucial to Werdum as the jab. Around this simple, efficient punch, Werdum and trainer Rafael Cordeiro have built a dangerous out-fighter’s game, not unlike that of a classical boxer–but with more kicks.

Countering the jab, then, will enable Miocic to unravel the very fabric of Werdum’s standup game. Effective gameplans often center on the idea of “taking away” the opponent’s most effective weapons. That means not only avoiding his best shots, but actively punishing him for throwing them.

Fortunately, Miocic has an educated left hand of his own. Werdum uses excellent feints and awkward timing to land his jab, but he is also fond of the good old fashioned catch n’ counter, wherein he catches or parries his opponent’s jab and responds with the same punch.

By strategically jabbing with Werdum, Miocic will be able to more regularly dictate when and how the champion throws his jab, which will allow him to time sharp counters. Evander Holyfield did this to Larry Holmes when the two fought in 1992. You can see in the adjacent GIF how Holyfield, significantly shorter of body and limb, used his own jab to draw out the jab of Holmes. Holyfield didn’t worry overmuch about landing the jab. All he wanted to do was make Holmes think about it–keep it in his face, maybe touch his gloves or shoulder to get the distance. Without having committed to an attack, Holyfield was constantly in position to evade and then follow Holmes’ jab straight back to his chin with a hard counter. And because the jab was Holmes’ most reliable punch, his game was significantly weakened when it was taken away.

Miocic can do the same thing to Werdum. Fortunately for him, Werdum is nowhere near as crafty on the defensive as Larry Holmes, though he is more willing to make up for that by exchanging blows. Still, single strikes and short, precise combinations will enable Miocic to slowly erode the foundation of Werdum’s dangerous kickboxing.

However, there is one important caveat for Miocic. Werdum can be countered, but he is incredibly difficult to dissuade. Miocic would be well advised to counter Werdum’s jab in order to take it away, but not by force, per se. A fighter like Werdum responds extremely well to pressure and aggression. He is more than comfortable standing his ground and trading to dissuade an aggressive opponent. He is, by all appearances, virtually fearless in the midst of a firefight. And say what you will about “Vai Cavalo’s” defense, but this horse can go, for five straight rounds if need be.

So Miocic should not expect to scare Werdum off, or to put him away with a single strike. Rather than instilling uncertainty in the champion, Miocic should focus on simply frustrating him. His counters should be short and straight, the kind of …

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