Who deserves National League All-Star status?

We’re not even at the quarter-mark of the season yet, so we’re still in that nebulous area of All-Star voting in which you want to celebrate hot starts while not forgetting a little thing known as track record.

In other words, constructing a collection of clicks on the 2016 Esurance MLB All-Star Game Ballot that considers not just who is worthy based on the 2016 sample, but who is most likely to be worthy by the time of the July 12 MLB All-Star Game presented by MasterCard at Petco Park, is a difficult balance. What follows is an attempt to find that balance in the Senior Circuit, which will try to snap a three-game All-Star game skid and win back home-field advantage in the World Series for the first time since 2012. (The Giants won that year, if you’re keeping score at home.)

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With all that said, these are my current picks for the National League All-Star squad.

First base: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs Statistically speaking, it’s a close call between Rizzo and Chris Carter of the Brewers, both of whom have been beacons of power production in the early going, with 10 homers apiece. Carter, on a one-year, $2.5 million deal, has looked like one of the savviest acquisitions of the offseason, but I do wonder if the swing-and-miss tendencies will drive his numbers closer to his career norm. Rizzo’s got the better track record, and likely more staying power.

Also on the radar are Brandon Belt, who is in line with Rizzo and Carter in the OPS department thanks to a substantial rise in walk rate. And Paul Goldschmidt figures to find himself in the running as the season evolves.

Second base: Daniel Murphy, Nationals He’s more than kept pace with a teammate who just so happens to be the reigning NL MVP Award winner, and he’s built off that incredible October lead up to the World Series, when he was baseball’s toughest out. The stance and swing changes Murphy made as 2015 evolved have clearly led to sustainable results, so I think Murphy has staying power here.

With due respect to the other key contributors at the keystone, this is an easy call right now.

Shortstop: Trevor Story, Rockies This is a tricky one. Can I say for certain that Story will still be a great story come July 12? Of course not. But even if his output isn’t quite what it was during his April homer binge, he’s still getting on base and producing consistently for the Rockies. The rookie sports a solid .924 OPS, …

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