UFC 198 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Werdum vs. Miocic

The wait is over. After claiming the undisputed Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight belt against Cain Velasquez in June, Fabricio Werdum was set to rematch the man he beat for the title at UFC 196 in February. When Velasquez was forced to pull out with an injury, Stipe Miocic was chosen as a late replacement, yet the matchup was postponed once Werdum pulled out with a back injury. Now, all the pieces have fallen in to place, and Werdum will fight Miocic at UFC 198 this Saturday in his native country of Brazil. “Vai Cavalo” will be defending his belt for the first time, as well as fighting for the first time this year. He has won six fights in a row, and he has not lost in the UFC since 2008. In the opposite corner, Ohio-native Miocic will look to extend his two-fight winning streak and notch what would easily be the biggest victory of his career. He was last seen in January at UFC 195, where he dusted former UFC champ Andrei Arlovski in under a minute. Prior to that, he put a world-class drubbing on the resurgent Mark Hunt in May 2015, smashing the 2001 K-1 World Grand Prix winner for four and a half rounds before he found the TKO win. Since debuting in the UFC in 2011, the part-time firefighter has steadily built one of the best resumes in the heavyweight division. Let us see what the Tale of the Tape has to say about the matchup: Judging purely on anthropometric stats, Miocic is a slightly heavier man with a non-negligible reach advantage. Factoring in the age difference, and that edge sharpens. At 38 years old, it is only a matter of time until Werdum’s 14 years of professional fighting start to catch up to him. In all fairness, he has not shown any signs of slowing down in the cage yet, though the back injury does little to inspire confidence in that regard. On the other hand, the 33-year-old Miocic is in his physical prime. Since neither of them is spectacular in terms of pure athleticism, you have to give the physical advantage to the larger, longer, younger man. At the same time, experience is something that cannot be so easily quantified, and Werdum wins that category by a landslide. He has fought professionally for eight more years than Miocic, and he has been in the big leagues all over the world for the majority of that tenure. Werdum has more fights in the UFC, Pride Fighting Championships and Strikeforce than Miocic has in his entire career, and Werdum has indisputably faced — and defeated — better opponents. On top of that, Werdum trains with what is arguably the best camp in the world: Kings MMA. Strong Style Fight Team is reputable and by no means a knock against Miocic, but given Werdum’s wealth of experience and Rafael …

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