In QB-Desperate NFL, Signal-Callers Will Remain No. 1, 2 Overall Picks Each Year

Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went first and second overall, respectively, in the 2016 NFL draft. Just a year ago, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota did the same thing. Was quarterbacks going first and second overall a unique occurrence these last two drafts, or are we in the midst of a new norm for the NFL draft process?

Looking at the historical trends, contract ramifications and pros and cons of the approach, the feeling is quarterbacks going atop the draft board is a trend that will continue well into the future. And while it’s far from a foolproof plan, it’s one that NFL teams may feel is a necessity to building a successful franchise.

A Look at History

NFL draft trends tend to fluctuate over the years as the league changes and smart teams adjust to the marketplace and movement in what’s working in the league. The running back trends, for example, shifted from taking the position high in the early 2000s to almost eliminating them from the first-round discussion in the early 2010s, and now we’ve seen Ezekiel Elliott go in the top five with an early run on running backs likely coming in 2017.

However, this jostling for position atop the draft for a quarterback is a trend that’s here to stay.

Below is a list of quarterbacks drafted in the top five over the last eight drafts, and more than a few notable takeaways jump out. Twice has a quarterback gone third in the draft. In those two instances—with hindsight—the 2008 Miami Dolphins (picking first overall) should have drafted Matt Ryan instead of spending a top-10 pick on Ryan Tannehill four years later, and the 2014 Houston Texans (picking first overall) opted for Jadeveon Clowney instead of Blake Bortles before suffering through frustrating finishes in 2014 and 2015 and aggressively spending on Brock Osweiler.

Additionally, quarterbacks going first and second overall has happened three times in the last five years. Finally, the prior two times a team traded up into the top five for a quarterback, they made the playoffs in that quarterback’s rookie season.

Nearly half the league (15 teams) has a starting quarterback that was taken in the top five, with just six teams finding a first-round quarterback outside of the first five selections. The league has been moving toward valuing quarterbacks higher and higher, above all else. And while the trend may not be in full force yet (especially looking at the 2014 draft mistakes teams made in letting top quarterbacks like Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr slip), its recent successes have been building to this point.

Value of Rookie Contracts

It may seem like a minute detail, but it’s one that NFL teams have to strongly consider when drafting a quarterback prospect or, in this case, trading up to do so. Initially, the thought that a rookie quarterback who’s picked first or second overall should merit a $7 …

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