UFC Rotterdam: Overeem vs. Arlovski staff picks and predictions

Bloody Elbow’s staff has submitted its predictions for the UFC Rotterdam fight card, and we have a couple of people choosing Andrei Arlovski to upset Alistair Overeem. Artem Safarov and Victor Rodriguez are siding with “Pitbull” to spoil Overeem’s return to Holland. Myself and Phil Mackenzie both like Antonio Silva to defeat Stefan Struve in the co-main event, while Tim Burke and Anton Tabuena have Gunnar Nelson beating Albert Tumenov.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Alistair Overeem

Anton Tabuena: It’s weird that they booked teammates against each other, when one fighter is one is on the brink of a title shot and the other coming off a KO loss, but this should still be fairly interesting. Heavyweights can end up being a ‘who lands first?’ type of bout, but stylistically, this should be Overeem’s fight to lose. I’ll be interested to see if Arlovski can prove me wrong once again, but I’m picking Alistair Overeem by KO.

Mookie Alexander: Oh god, the heavyweight main event that feels like it should be a foregone conclusion, but actually isn’t. Overeem is on a much better run of form than Arlovski is, but Greg Jackson will be in Arlovski’s corner. They both hit hard, are both quite hittable, and we can easily see Arlovski getting one more big win on his resume. Dare I pull the trigger on the upset? Nah. Overeem seems to have figured something out with his striking, especially defensively, and I’m going with him to put Arlovski to sleep. Alistair Overeem by KO, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: Four years ago, I wouldn’t have seen this coming. Overeem came into the UFC after being poached from Strikeforce as their heavyweight champ, having won the not-so-meaningful (I’m being polite here) DREAM title right after winning the K-1 Grand Prix. His stock was higher than ever as he took on the former king Brock Lesnar, sending him back to the WWE with body shots that bordered on vulgar. Then he stumbled as his jaw crumbled in various fights that he shouldn’t have lost against the likes of Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell, as his MMA deficiencies were on display. By the time he fought Junior dos Santos as the UFC very clearly planned, it was few years too late and we got a calculated performance capped by a stunning KO that at this point seems to say more about Junior’s deficiencies than it does about Overeem’s improvements. Arlovski came back from the brink of irrelevancy after various infamous knockouts to a lackluster decision win he didn’t earn against Brendan Schaub but a sensational barnburner against the aforementioned Travis Browne as well as a stunning (at the time) KO over Bigfoot Silva. Despite his last loss to Miocic, Arlovski has both Jackson and Winklejohn in his corner, as well as spry movement and great combination work while Overeem keeps looking for the one-shot kill. Both have suspect chins, but Arlovski’s really worked on better defensive habits and knows he needs an emphatic win to get the title shot he wants. How’s taste my punch-punch? Andrei Arlovski by KO, R2.

Fraser Coffeen: Super tough fight to call here because of the hot and cold nature of both men’s recent careers. Kind of like Frank Mir, these are guys you keep writing off, then they surprise you by showing they are still in it. That makes this a super exciting fight, and one I have honestly been wanting to see for quite some time. I feel like Reem has looked quite good in his 3 recent wins, as he has moved away from just a pure kickboxing game to also being willing to outwrestle you if that’s what the fight calls for. I see them fighting even on the feet, and Overeem being cagey enough to steal the rounds in what actually might end up not being the world’s most thrilling fight. Alistair Overeem, decision

Zane Simon: Hey guys (don’t bet on heavyweight fights), I’m just (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) dropping in to say (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) that this fight seems pretty straightforward (don’t bet on heavyweight fights). Given the chance (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) both men are really comfortable (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) letting their opponent hang out at range and (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) take whatever time they (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) need. But, while at range (don’t bet on heavyweight fights), Overeem is a much more active (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) striker who seems to have a real process (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) in place. Arlovski’s best moments center around (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) the opportunities his opponents give when they (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) attack him. That seems like a recipe tailor made (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) for Overeem to get lots of time and space (don’t bet on heavyweight fights) and really do well. Alistair Overeem via KO, Round 2. (don’t bet on heavyweight fights)

Jed Meshew: Overeem has already diffused another big punching heavyweight who is entirely reliant on his right hand in Roy Nelson. Arlovski is more athletic than Nelson and quicker but I suspect Overeem will still be able to avoid taking the big shot and will throw slightly more volume than Arlovski over the course of 5 rounds. Of course, both men have big power and neither is particularly durable so either could shut the other’s lights out at any moment but I think the most likely scenario is Overeem outpointing Arlovski in a tepid affair. Overeem by decision.

Staff picking Arlovski: Artem, VictorStaff picking Overeem: Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Zane, Tim, Anton, Nick, Jed

Antonio Silva vs. Stefan Struve

Anton Tabuena: This will probably end up with a finish, but not the type that excites people, the slightly depressing one that makes you go, “oh not again, please reconsider your options…” Hard to predict how each of these guys will look, but it’s more likely to end up with Stefan Struve by KO.

Mookie Alexander: Whatever, this is me just being a contrarian and picking Bigfoot to KO Struve before Struve KOs Bigfoot. Antonio Silva by KO, round 2.

Victor: Oh, dayum. Does this really have to happen? Struve came back from getting bodied by Hunt, took the long layoff to get KO’d by Overeem, and we should mention the aborted bout against Mitrione that year due to his cardiac condition and passing out before that fight. He won against Big Nog in a kinda meh fight and then got sucked into the black hole of a Jared Rosholt fight. We’re not seeing the kind of improvement from him that we expected him to have years ago, and other knockout losses to Browne, Roy Nelson and JDS have fans often wondering if he should even be fighting. Bigfoot Silva got off TRT, had his pituitary gland removed and lost what was left of his ability to take a decent punch in the process. Doesn’t matter who gets his hand raised, we all lose here. Maybe Struve finally learns to use his range or hits a Hail Mary submission. Hope you’re happy, Joe Silva. Stefan Struve via whatever.

Fraser Coffeen: This fight gives me the sads. Stefan Struve, KO, R1

Zane Simon: Both guys are shades of their past glory at this point, but Struve seems like a much tougher shade who can at least ride things out for a little while before getting brutally ko’d. Silva these days seems to melt the first time serious leather touches him. Stefan Struve via KO, Round 1. (See above for secondary betting advice)

Jed Meshew: Considering the medical issues both men have no one should feel super confident picking either one here. Having said that, I would be pretty surprised if Silva won. Bigfoot’s chin has completely disappeared while remaining very hittable and Struve, for all his foibles, is still a big heavyweight who can hit hard and is young enough to be improving. The only way I see Silva winning is by forcing Struve up against the cage and grinding him down with punches there and I don’t see that happening for extended periods of time. If Struve would ever learn to use his reach effectively he would be a massive favorite to win this but even so I still like him to land a long right hand and put Silva away. Struve by TKO, R2.

Staff picking Silva: Mookie, PhilStaff picking Struve: Artem, Stephie, Victor, Fraser, Zane, Tim, Anton, Nick, Jed

Gunnar Nelson vs. Albert Tumenov

Anton Tabuena: Well this is mostly more of a heart over head pick. I always enjoy his bouts, but Nelson’s ability to go from stoic fighter to crazy pop music video dancer makes it hard for me to root against him. Gunnar Nelson by submission.

Mookie Alexander: Gunnar Nelson’s style is not good enough to put him among the elite at welterweight, and it absolutely will not work at 155. So the question becomes whether or not Tumenov is ready to be in the top 10. We haven’t really seen him tested on the ground (at least to my recollection) since the Alcantara loss, so if Nelson can get him down then things become really interesting. Otherwise, Tumenov is just going to wreck Gunnar standing. It’s not that Gunnar is bad, but Albert is on another level. Albert Tumenov by TKO, round 2.

Victor: Gunnar Nelson is a tremendous grappler and even just in his time in the UFC, his striking certainly looks better. Problem is he’s fighting Tumenov, and holy hell, Tumenov can look great. Nelson has the obvious advantage on the ground, but fights start standing, and Tumenov is not an idiot, hence his nickname. Albert Tumenov via TKO.

Phil Mackenzie: The “Russian” anti-wrestling style tends to front-load sprawl defense into the first layers and then sprint-grappling subs and sweeps into the next ones. Then it kind of… collapses. Thus, if Nelson can navigate past those layers on Tumenov, he’s likely in major trouble. Is it going to happen? I very much doubt it. Tumenov has been pretty stellar with his takedown defense since that weird debut loss to Alcantara, and essentially has exactly the combination of leg kicks and steady attritive volume which was so poisonous to Nelson when he fought Story, with the added benefit of being longer and cleaner with his strikes. Nelson can certainly win this with a single strike or takedown, but that increasingly seems like the only way he can win at these sort of levels. He’s crazy tough, though, so Albert Tumenov by unanimous decision. Zane Simon: Is Tumenov’s takedown defense as good as it’s looked lately? This will be the biggest wrestling test of his career, most likely. Are Nelson’s hands or output improved? Tumenov is probably best striker Nelson has ever faced. Frankly the second question bothers me a lot more. Nelson, while a decent enough wrestler has never been much of a consistent takedown artist. He’s been a good enough grappler that if he gets you to the mat you’re usually screwed, but often it can take a full round or two for that to happen. I just think Tumenov presents too many problems standing and Nelson doesn’t present enough threats anywhere other than the mat for me to pick him to win. Albert Tumenov via decision.

Jed Meshew: This fight is hot damn fire. Tumenov is a legit prospect with big time power and crisp stand up and Gunni will always have a special place in my heart for how he hustles on the floor. The dynamics here are pretty straight forward. If this fight goes to the ground, Nelson is …

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