Did Cowboys use faulty logic in drafting Elliott?

With the fourth pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, the Dallas Cowboys selected running back Ezekiel Elliott over defensive back Jalen Ramsey. It turns out they might’ve used some faulty logic to make that pick.

After the first round, the Cowboys defended their decision by saying Elliott would improve more than just their offense — they also believe Elliott will aid their defense. Then, a little later, ESPN’s Ed Werder provided more insight into the Cowboys’ thought process.

Apparently, the Cowboys graded Elliott and Ramsey evenly, but they drafted Elliot because … well, I’ll let Werder explain.

#Cowboys had Elliott and Ramsey graded evenly. One tiebreaker – they can give Elliott 25 touches. Teams can throw away from Ramsey. Sensible

— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) May 1, 2016

OK, so let’s start with the first idea. The Cowboys argued they improved their defense by adding a running back who can chew up the clock because, by piling up lengthy drives on offense, the defense isn’t required to take the field as frequently. While that’s obviously true, the impact that time of possession has on a defense isn’t so clear.

Michael Salfino, a sports analyst for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Fantasy, tried to find a correlation between time of possession and a defense’s performance. No correlation existed last season.

So do you see any correlation between holding the ball on offense and playing better defense? I don’t. #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/xRtshicWwC

— Michael Salfino (@MichaelSalfino) May 2, 2016

(Note: NFL.com lists slightly different time of possession numbers.)

As Salfino later mentioned, the Cowboys finished 18th in points allowed per drive in 2014, when they handed the ball to DeMarco Murray nearly 400 times. Based on Salfino’s calculations, there’s no guarantee a successful running game spearheaded by Elliott will increase the efficiency of Dallas’ defense.

That aspect of the Cowboys’ …

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