Are Spurs a Bigger Long-Term Threat to Chelsea’s London Dominance Than Arsenal?

Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal have not locked horns since since their 2-2 draw on March 5. As has been the case for a large part of the last decade, however, they are again engaged in the familiar battle to be recognised as north London’s top club.

This Premier League subplot has been played in the shadows of near-perennial Chelsea dominance among the capital’s clubs. This season, for the first time in quite a while, Tottenham are showing signs of being a bigger long-term threat to this status quo than Arsenal.

Despite their difficulties during one of English football’s most dramatically unsuccessful title defences, Chelsea—who host Spurs on Monday night—are still unequivocally London’s club to beat.

The Blues have been champions four times since Arsenal’s last league win in that historic unbeaten 2003-04 campaign. In Europe, they have been the the capital’s pre-eminent club (UEFA Champions League winners in 2011-12 and UEFA Europa League victors the following season), and at home, they are a domestic cup force—something Spurs have twice detrimentally found out in sight of glory of their own.

Their resources and talent are so considerable as to have been able to attract a manager the calibre of Italy coach Antonio Conte for next season. Interim boss Guus Hiddink has twice jumped at the chance of just taking on a temporary gig at Stamford Bridge.

Past successes and prestige only counts for so much without timely progress. Nevertheless, plenty is still stacked in Chelsea’s favour.

With precedent and experience likely to inform a renewed charge for them, it is hard to see 2015-16’s mid-table mediocrity being little more than an aberration.

That Tottenham are confident they can at least become a more serious obstacle to this than Arsenal is a noteworthy development (Slaven Bilic’s ascendant West Ham United side will also be well worth tracking)—one that, if confirmed in the remaining weeks of the season, will set up a fascinating dynamic in north London, particularly heading into next season.

Consistency Ain’t Easy

Tottenham have gone close to finishing ahead of Arsenal on numerous occasions in the aforementioned period, potential opportunities to establish even a momentary degree of supremacy ultimately falling agonisingly short.

The infamous final-day miss of 2005-06—a season when Chelsea celebrated their second title win in a row—is still perhaps the most galling.

Stricken with team-wide illness, Spurs saw their Champions League hopes killed by West Ham as Arsenal beat Wigan Athletic to take fourth place.

More positively for Spurs, that impressive season marked the beginning of an entry to top-four contention that—bar two years between 2007 and 2009 wasted by managerial upheaval—has lasted since.

This endurance is no small thing in a division as strong as the Premier League has been.

Back then, Aston Villa were, with Spurs, seen as one of the more likely to break into the top four. They are now preparing for life in the second tier. Everton are another to periodically come close, only to then fall away for stretches.

Up until 2005-06, Spurs had also primarily been a mid-table concern in the …

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