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Will Cowboys Rookie Ezekiel Elliott Break the Top-5 Running Back Stigma?
- Updated: April 29, 2016
The jury will remain out for years to come on most, if not all, of the 31 players selected in Thursday night’s first round of the NFL draft. However, please take a moment to consider some recent NFL facts of life which explain why Ezekiel Elliott—taken fourth overall by the Dallas Cowboys—is just the second running back in the last eight years to be drafted in the top five.
The NFL doesn’t run. The last four NFL seasons have been the most pass-heavy campaigns in league history. Teams passed a record 56.1 percent of the time in 2012, a record 56.6 percent of the time in 2013, a record 56.7 percent of the time in 2014 and a record 57.6 percent of the time in 2015. Ten years ago, in 2006, that rate was 53.2 percent.
Diamonds are ubiquitous in the running back rough. Less running doesn’t necessarily mean teams don’t need backs, but few are willing to spend premium draft picks on them. Why? Among the top 10 rushers over the last decade, five weren’t first-round picks. Among the top 10 rushers over the last half-decade, only three were first-round picks. And since 2010, Adrian Peterson is the only first-round pick to lead the league in rushing.
Two words: Trent Richardson. Only one other running back has been drafted in the top eight since 2009, and his name might as well by Busty McBusterson. Trent Richardson, who was drafted third overall by the Cleveland Browns in 2012, averaged just 3.31 yards per carry between 2012 and 2014, which ranked second-last in football among backs with at least 10 starts during that span. Unsurprisingly, he spent the 2015 season out of the NFL entirely. That’s sort of the definition of a cautionary tale, no?
It’s possible the Cowboys have gone rogue, bucking a trend that saw no backs selected in the first round in 2013 and 2014. If anyone in this league is going to disregard common perception, it’s Jerry Jones. The Cowboys owner infamously tried to draft Johnny Manziel two years ago, so it’s possible the league’s most entertainment-oriented executive simply insisted his team draft a flashy offensive player, …
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