Why Novak Djokovic Is Still the Prohibitive Favorite at the 2016 French Open

A prosperous fortnight in Monte Carlo and Barcelona gave a rejuvenated Rafael Nadal two big titles and imbued him with the type of confidence booster he desired for months on end.

The sample size is small, but Nadal showed flashes of the old “King of Clay” we once grew accustomed to seeing wreak havoc every spring.

The buzz around him is palpable. But that recent success may not matter once he hits his old stamping grounds in Paris. Even the nine-time French Open champion will have to chase a player on the precipice of history: Novak Djokovic.

Overshadowed isn’t a term often used to describe Djokovic anymore, yet he’s taken a backseat to the Nadal hype train in recent weeks. Partly because of his own early exit in Monte Carlo and mainly due to his rival’s resurgence, the world No. 1’s status as the overwhelming favorite for Roland Garros seems to have cooled.

Not so fast.

There’s a reason Djokovic should still be considered the man to beat at the French Open: He’s just that much better than the field, including Nadal. Prior to that upset loss in Monte Carlo—and not counting his injury-induced retirement in Dubai this February—the sterling Serb won all nine tournaments he entered dating back to the 2015 U.S. Open.

That’s the definition of a true monarchy.

So while we lavish Nadal with praise for his turnaround, let’s remember how thoroughly Djokovic has controlled their rivalry the last two years. Their last six matches have all gone his way in straight sets, including his quarterfinal dethroning of Nadal in Paris last June. 

That win could pay huge psychological dividends for Djokovic should …

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