Dissecting the struggles of Harvey, Verlander, Wainwright

At this early juncture of the season, when the slightest of missteps can lead to the largest of statistical swings, it’s not unusual to see more than 20 qualified starters in possession of an ERA north of 5.00.

We just didn’t expect to see the names of Adam Wainwright, David Price, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Chris Archer and Matt Harvey dotting that particular list. It says here that this can’t possibly last, as evidenced by Archer’s resurgent start against the Orioles on Monday night and Price’s 14-strikeout effort in Atlanta on Tuesday night.

On Wednesday, Wainwright, Verlander and Harvey all take the hill for their respective clubs. These are three aces in the hole, certainly, but each offers his own version of hope — either in the form of a recent start or some underlying statistics — that better times (and better numbers) lie ahead.

Let’s take a look at each of Wednesday’s surprisingly subpar probables and see what’s gone wrong and what lies ahead.

Harvey (1-3, 5.24 ERA) vs. Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET, Citi Field

Harvey got his first victory Friday against the Braves, but the 101 pitches it took him to get through five innings and the quality of the opponents’ lineup did little to silence the questions surrounding his start to the season. Though the media-created narrative of Harvey letting Noah Syndergaard’s rise to superstardom get to his head is silly stuff, this is obviously a guy still trying to find his proper form.

“He’s having a tough time putting anybody away,” Mets manager Terry Collins said of Harvey. “He gets ahead of them, he’s pounding the zone, and it’s foul ball, foul ball, foul ball.”

Indeed, per Brooks Baseball, Harvey is getting substantially fewer whiffs per swing with his four-seamer, changeup and slider than we’re accustomed to seeing:

Overall, Harvey’s strikeout rate has fallen 10.6 percent — 24.9 to 14.3 — from last year’s mark. His walk rate has ballooned from 4.9 percent to 8.2.

It’s notable that Harvey’s four-seamer velocity is 1.6 ticks below where it was last April (94.98, vs. 96.58). This fits in conveniently with the concern associated with Harvey’s 216 innings in 2015 — the most by a pitcher in his first season back from Tommy John. Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen has specifically expressed concern about Harvey’s mechanics pitching out of the stretch — something Harvey’s had to do with frustrating frequency this season.

The above doesn’t necessarily point to an easy, overnight fix. But take heart, Mets fans: Harvey’s hard-hit rate (25.3 percent) is the lowest of his career, his soft contact rate (30.7) is the highest of his career. Soft contact falling …

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