UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux staff picks and predictions

The Bloody Elbow staff predictions are in for UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux, and only Jed Meshew is picking Ovince Saint Preux to upset Jon Jones. While he’s adventurous to pick OSP, nobody is going with Henry Cejudo to upset Demetrious Johnson in the co-main event. Only Nick Baldwin is going for Edson Barboza over Anthony Pettis, Artem Safarov and Fraser Coffeen like Rafael Natal over Robert Whittaker, and Nick, Phil Mackenzie, and Tim Burke see Andre Fili defeating Yair Rodriguez.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Note 2: He’s been around for a few weeks, but everyone welcome Jed Meshew to the Bloody Elbow staff!

Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Mookie Alexander: OSP has a chance if only for his KO power and all of the personal distractions coming back to haunt Jones mentally (and I’m really reaching here). Everything else points to pure domination from a stylistic matchup. OSP is a very good fighter who is also nowhere near Jones’ zip code. Jon Jones by rear-naked choke, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: So, it really came down to this, huh? OSP is another one of those cats that came over from Strikeforce and just figured would flunk out. Freak athlete, but too raw and with no finesse, too reliant on physicality and athleticism. He’s been getting really, really good, though. Scary good. He has stellar knockout power but doesn’t set up his shots with combinations often, has no kicking game, and his defensive wrestling isn’t very good. He muscles his way out of submissions and is limited on the ground. Now he has to take on the man that is almost unanimously praised as being the greatest of all time? No pressure. Realistically, OSP could land a crazy shot and put Jones to sleep, but even then his cardio is suspect. I love Ovince to death, but smart money stays on hungry, motivated and pissed powerlifting Jones. You and I both know that he can’t lose this. Jon Jones by submission.

Tim Bissell: I can’t pick against the most creative fighter the sport has ever seen. Jon Jones by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: If Jon Jones decides he doesn’t want to just wrestle OSP through the mat, then it’ll probably take him a bit longer to win and be a bit more fun to watch. Jon Jones via TKO, Round 2.

Nick Baldwin: So, Ovince Saint Preux is getting that title shot we all imagined he would at one point. He has two recent losses on his record though, which were very eye-opening. Jones should be able to get OSP to the mat and choke him out in the opening rounds. Hopefully, he chooses to stand to make it more exciting, but as far as a result goes, nothing changes. Jones can knock Saint Preux, Jones can submit Saint Preux, Jones can decision Saint Preux. Even if the ghost of Jon Jones is the one we see on Saturday, he should still win easily. OSP’s only hope is… bring on them 12-6 elbows! Jon Jones via Submission; Round 2

Fraser Coffeen: Really, the only way this is not a Jones domination is if the former champ has somehow gone completely off the rails in the last year. And everything indicates he has not. I’m not 100% sure he’s still the #1 P4P in the world, but he’s certainly still much better than OSP. Jon Jones via KO, round 2

Staff picking Jones: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, FraserStaff picking OSP: Jed

Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo

Mookie Alexander: Let’s say Cejudo takes Demetrious down. Then what? Does he win the majority of the scrambles? Can he avoid getting swept? Can he hold Demetrious for a prolonged period of time and win with top control? I just can’t see that happening at this stage in their respective career. Mighty Mouse is just too multi-faceted for everyone at 125. Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision.

Victor: I’m always fascinated by guys with crazy accolades like NCAA championships or FIAS (Sambo) champions. So when we get an Olympian, I immediately am drawn to see how they transition to MMA. Cejudo is neither a Rousey nor McMann story, and has had a more than bumpy road to get to the UFC. Since arriving, he’s cleaned up a lot of the problems and distractions that some were concerned about while looking really good for a guy that hasn’t been training striking very long. Phenomenal athlete, looks smart in his fights, but taking on a guy that is worlds ahead in terms of overall technique and outstanding fighting instinct. Demetrious Johnson by submission, Round 4

Tim Bissell: I think Cejudo takes DJ down, but doesn’t keep him down, and that in the long-run the Olympian eats too much damage coming in and out of the champion’s range. Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Between the amount of time that it will take Cejudo to catch up to Demetrious Johnson and the later rounds where DJ’s superior cardio, toolset, and adaptability take over, I could see Cejudo being competitive in the second and maybe third rounds. Demetrious Johnson via UD.

Nick Baldwin: I don’t see Cejudo being a test for Mighty Mouse. Johnson is too strong, too fast and has an insane cardio level compared to the Olympic gold medalist. Cejudo could make it close early but he doesn’t have a finish win in his four UFC outings. If he can’t finish Dustin Kimura, he sure can’t finish arguably the greatest fighter on planet Earth. Cejudo needs to grind this one out, but I would be surprised if he can even land a single takedown, despite his credentials in the wrestling department. I think Johnson picks him apart on the feet, maybe even takes him down, for a decision win or a late submission. Demetrious Johnson via Unanimous Decision

Staff picking Johnson: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, JedStaff picking Cejudo:

Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Pettis

Mookie Alexander: I can absolutely see Barboza getting the upset here. Pettis will get his space to work his striking vs. Barboza, but how often have we ever seen Anthony fight a pure striker? I guess Cerrone, but Cowboy’s style isn’t all that comparable to Edson’s. Barboza seems to be reacting better to absorbing strikes, his offense is lethal, and Pettis hasn’t often dealt with guys as creative as Barboza. That said, Pettis can also completely own Barboza on the mat, which is where I feel the fight will be taken in order to avoid the risk of getting chin-checked. It’s going to be a fun one, that’s for sure. Anthony Pettis by submission, round 2.

Victor: Ah. A battle between two of the most inconsistent yet spectacularly exciting fighters of our time. And while Pettis reached the mountaintop, Barboza seems stuck between second and third gear. Usually I favor guys with Muay Thai-oriented striking over Karate/Taekwondo guys, but Pettis’ movement and his blending of boxing, kickboxing, Taekwondo and criminally long amounts of Marvel vs Capcom gameplay will be an advantage. That and the fact that Barboza can be a painfully slow starter that often has problems defending shots down the middle (exploited masterfully by Cerrone). Barboza’s not taking Pretty Tony down, so his best bet is to work pressure striking up close, because the only guys that succeed against Pettis are guys that don’t let him use his range. Guida, Alvarez and RDA gave him no breathing room, flustered his timing and kept him contained, and Barboza does none of those things to that degree. Pettis superstyles on Edson in a majority of the exchanges for a thrilling bout that ends in a decision. Anthony Pettis by unanimous decision.

Tim Bissell: This is a fight designed to get Pettis back to relevancy. If Barboza wants to grind out a win, and he’s studied Pettis’ last two fights, I’m sure he could stifle Showtime, but I expect Barboza believes he can do that fighting his own style. If both fighters give each other space to tee off on one another, I favour Pettis to hurt Barboza and follow up with a choke. Anthony Pettis by submission (d’arce choke), round 3.

Phil Mackenzie: Lost in the excitement about this fight is the fact that the loser will be 1-3 in their last 4, but there is any justice… ANY justice at all in this cold, bleak world, Edson Barboza will win. These two were both flawed, dangerous fighters back when Pettis joined the UFC, but Showtime’s flaws were much, much less pronounced. The damning thing is that Barboza has clawed and eked and scraped his way to being a far better fighter than he was, and has actively addressed his struggles with the pocket and getting backed into the cage… and Pettis is still pretty much the same goddamn guy he was back then, and the fight is still unfairly difficult to call. Why should Pettis win? Why does he deserve to win? Just because he can punch a bit straighter? Because he has a better chin? I’m going to pick Pettis, solely because I’m going to be so furious if he wins that I at least want to be consoled by having made the right pick. Anthony Pettis by something.

Zane Simon: Two guys that will probably get the fight they want, and while Edson Barboza is one of the most exciting and consistent range strikers in the business, Anthony Pettis is a better finisher and a tougher out… and every bit as creative. Anthony Pettis via KO, Round 3.

Nick Baldwin: Hey, at least Pettis won’t get grinded out for the third time in a row. Stylistically, this a dream matchup for the former champion. But I’m still going with Edson Barboza — once a lesser version of Showtime. Not anymore, though. Pettis’ beating to Rafael dos Anjos changed him for the rest of his career. I don’t think Pettis will be as quick, as accurate, as powerful as he was when he reigned …

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