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Numbers reveal Trumbo’s hidden value
- Updated: January 8, 2017
Despite hitting a Major League-leading 47 homers in 2016, Mark Trumbo remains unsigned, and it seems all but certain that he’ll end up with a contract worth far less than the $75 million deal he was reportedly seeking at the Winter Meetings just a month ago. In one way, that reflects the new reality of baseball, because power-hitting sluggers who don’t offer much value in getting on base or on defense simply don’t get paid the way they used to, particularly ones who have the Qualifying Offer hanging over them as Trumbo does.
But what if there’s a simple way to make Trumbo look more valuable? What if a team simply stopped putting him in a position to fail — i.e., the outfield — and let him play first base on a full-time basis, where he’s been quietly valuable when he’s had the opportunity over his career? What would his value look like then?
We can find out. Let’s do a little math. Not too much, though.
Last year, Trumbo was worth 2.2 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs. A two-win player is considered to be about league average, and that placed him in a group of solid-but-not-elite players like Joe Panik, J.J. Hardy, and Randal Grichuk. That’s partially because he was below-average at getting on base (his .316 OBP was below the .326 MLB average for non-pitchers) and on the bases, but largely because he was a negative on defense, and WAR attempts to estimate a player’s entire value. Trumbo’s one big plus was weighed down in other areas, so the net result was “average.”
While current defensive metrics have their imperfections, this should be one time where the numbers and the eye test align pretty well. Of the 74 outfielders who had 750 innings last year, he was tied for 66th in Defensive Runs Saved and 69th in Ultimate Zone Rating. Going back to 2002, he’s in the bottom 11th percentile in outfield UZR, and looking at WAR totals for 40-homer hitters since World War II, his 2016 season ranked 287th of 295.
Compare him, for example, to Peter Bourjos, who played about a similar amount of innings in right field in 2016 and just slightly more outfield overall. As you can see in the rotating image below, using Statcast™ measurements on an outfielder’s distance from the ball and the hang time he had in which to get there, Bourjos made nine catches considered “highlights” (the darkest red area) while Trumbo made none. Bourjos had 22 catches considered “tough,” (the lighter red), while Trumbo had only seven.
This is not meant to be controversial or derogatory; he’s simply been asked to do something he’s not strong at. He hasn’t been placed in the best position to …
