UFC 197 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Johnson vs. Cejudo

The word “underappreciated” comes to mind when discussing Demetrious Johnson. Having already dispatched nearly every defensible contender, the man they call “Mighty Mouse” is knocking on the doors of MMA history. He was last seen in September, when he took a clear-cut unanimous decision over John Dodson. That was his seventh title defense, tying him with former featherweight champion Jose Aldo for the fourth-most title defenses in Ultimate Fighting Championship history. In each of those defenses, Dodson was the only one who managed to steal any rounds from him, making Johnson arguably the most dominant champion the UFC has ever seen. He fought twice in 2015; this is his first fight of 2016. Standing across from him in the UFC 197 co-main event on Saturday will be the highly touted Henry Cejudo. The undefeated prospect and former Olympic gold medalist made his UFC debut in December 2014 and has only fought four times in the promotion. However, he has impressed in each bout, utilizing his athletic and technical gifts to take one-sided decisions every time out. He was last in the Octagon in November, when he beat Jussier da Silva in what was perplexingly judged a split decision. It was the third fight of the year for “The Messenger,” who was dubbed a potential heir to Johnson’s throne in his first UFC fight; this will be the first time he fights in 2016. Here is what the Tale of the Tape tells us: Both men are in similar anthropometric ranges across the board, though Johnson has a slight reach advantage despite being an inch shorter than Cejudo. They are both 29 years of age and show no discernible signs of wear and tear, so the physical advantages and disadvantages they may have are marginal. The real difference here is in experience. Johnson has been fighting professionally for six years longer and has nearly five times as many Octagon minutes as Cejudo. Said differently, Cejudo only has one more fight in his entire career than Johnson has UFC title fights. That type of experience could be huge, especially since this will be the first time Cejudo will fight past the 15-minute mark; Johnson has seen the championship rounds seven times in the UFC. Cejudo is no stranger to high-level competition, as he has a stellar amateur wrestling career to his name, but mixed martial arts is a different beast. This is particularly relevant because Cejudo has yet to finish anyone in the UFC, which means he will likely need to have a better five-round process to beat the incumbent champion, which nobody at flyweight has been close to accomplishing thus far. It is also worth mentioning that Cejudo’s UFC opponents have a combined record of …

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