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Hoffman awaits ‘nerve-wracking’ HOF vote
- Updated: January 7, 2017
SAN DIEGO — Trevor Hoffman is cautiously optimistic that his second time on the ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame is going to be the right time.
Hoffman missed election last year by a scant 34 votes when Mariners slugger Ken Griffey Jr. and Mets catcher Mike Piazza were elected by eligible members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
Based on the tracking done so far by Ryan Thibodaux of 174 public BBWAA ballots, Hoffman is moving up, showing a net gain of 13 votes with at least 276 to be counted. Last year, 440 writers sent in ballots. Like any candidate, Hoffman must be named on 75 percent of them. Last year, he finished at 67.3 percent. Full disclosure: I voted for Hoffman on both occasions.
The results of the 73rd BBWAA Hall of Fame election will be revealed Wednesday, Jan. 18 at 6 p.m. ET live on MLB Network, and simulcast live on MLB.com beginning at 5 p.m. A press conference introducing any of the new inductees will be the next day.
“It’s going to be nip and tuck, honestly,” Hoffman recently told MLB.com. “I’ve been taking a look at the tracking of the ballots [Thibodaux] has been able to see, and it’s going to be a couple of percentage points either way. It’s going to be a little nerve-wracking, no doubt about it.”
The fact that Hoffman needs to pick up only about 21 more votes among the remaining ballots is a good reason for him to be cautiously optimistic.
Thibodaux, who’s @NotMrTibbs on Twitter, said in his experience the vote for closers actually increases by as much as 5 percent when the non-public ballots are tabulated.
That may be because the group of writers who choose to remain anonymous are older and put more of a premium on closers, saves and longevity. Younger writers seem to place less emphasis on those categories and a lot more on modern analytics. Beginning next year, the BBWAA has decided that all ballots will be released to the public.
Hoffman’s WAR, for example, was 28.0, 316th all-time among pitchers. Mariano Rivera, generally considered to be …
