It’s off to the races for 5 potential aces

Let’s take this time to seek out 2017’s likeliest breakout pitchers, but first we must answer the surprisingly complicated question of “what makes a breakout season?”

For example: Kyle Hendricks cut his ERA nearly in half from 3.95 to 2.13 and finished third in the NL Cy Young ballot. Yet while the run prevention was markedly better, the inputs behind it — strikeouts, walks, homers — didn’t change much. (There was even evidence he induced less soft contact than he had in 2015.) Of course, he did find himself in front of one of the best defenses in history, which helped save runs.

So if a breakout season means that the pitcher was hugely different, Hendricks wouldn’t qualify. If it means that the overall success rate was different, then he surely would. That’s the definition we’ll use here, identifying pitchers who — either due to changes they’ve made or changes made around them — could be in position to allow fewer runs in 2017.

Robbie Ray, DiamondbacksWhy: Arizona is going to make it easier on their pitchers to succeed

Ray had himself a pretty odd 2016 season, as advanced metrics liked him (3.0 FanGraphs WAR, where 2 is “league average”) due to his high strikeout total, but traditional numbers (8-15, 4.90 ERA) most certainly did not. The reason few worry about pitcher win/loss record any longer is because that reflects the quality of the team, not just the individual, and in this case, that approach applies to Ray’s run prevention issues as well.

Remember, the D-Backs had a solid defensive outfield in 2015, with David Peralta and Ender Inciarte flanking A.J. Pollock. But in 2016, Inciarte was in Atlanta while Peralta and Pollock missed huge chunks of time due to injuries, leaving Arizona to play converted infielders like Brandon Drury, Rickie Weeks Jr., and Yasmany Tomas in the outfield. The results weren’t pretty — Arizona’s outfield Defensive Runs Saved dropped from +37 to -19, a difference of 56 (!) runs.

Inciarte isn’t coming back, but simple outfield health ought to make that better on the Arizona staff, not to mention swapping out the framing-challenged Welington Castillo (-10 runs, per Baseball Prospectus) for Jeff Mathis (+8 runs in part-time play). Ray had the fifth-highest strikeout rate among any starting pitcher last year; missed bats plus better defense plus more called strikes can only help.

James Paxton, MarinersWhy: We already saw signs of it — if he can stay healthy

Dig Paxton’s innings pitched totals and strikeout / walk numbers the last three seasons, particularly the difference between his strikeout and walk rates.

2014 74 IP — 19.5% K% — 9.6 BB%2015 67 IP — 18.9 K% — 9.8 BB%2016 121 IP — 22.9 % — 4.7 …

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