2016-17 NFL MVP: Latest Odds and Predictions Following Week 17

Forecasting NFL’s 2016 MVP race has proved futile throughout the season. Every week has welcomed a new candidate while shoving someone else from the discussion. Viewers needed to wait until the final game before they could truly decide.

In what started as the worst season of his career, Aaron Rodgers stormed into the conversation with 15 touchdowns and no interceptions during the Green Bay Packers’ closing six-game winning streak. After cementing an NFC North title Sunday night, he’s a top contender for this third MVP trophy.

There’s no clear-cut winner, but several intriguing options frequent a hypothetical ballot. The steady Matt Ryan led all quarterbacks in many significant categories. Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott guided the Dallas Cowboys to an NFC-best 13 wins, but they may wrestle votes from each other.

Tom Brady and Le’Veon Bell dazzled enough in a dozen games each to factor into the decision process. Yet missing multiple games because of suspensions can’t go ignored with a 16-game schedule.

David Johnson, who finished with 2,118 total yards, deserves a seat at the debate, but don’t count on the voters awarding someone from a 7-8-1 team. 

With the final data sampling submitted for review, let’s make the case for the most notable contenders before predicting a winner. The ensuing odds, courtesy of OddsShark, were taken before Brady, Rodgers and Ryan made compelling closing arguments in Week 17.

            

Each Top Candidate’s Case

                 

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan should be the comfortable favorite.

The quarterback for the NFL’s leading scoring offense finished the season first in yards per attempt and passer rating. He rates second in both passing yards and completion percentage and threw at least one touchdown in every game.

Why is he not the runaway favorite? As surmised by Football Outsiders’ Scott Kacsmar, the 31-year-old is getting punished, because he’s not a flashy star who has ever reached such lofty heights:

Let’s be honest. The main argument working against Matt Ryan for MVP is that his name is Matt Ryan. He’s not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, and his reputation in NFL circles, at best, has been “poor man’s Peyton Manning.” However, in his ninth season, Ryan is producing at a level just below what these other quarterbacks achieved at their peaks. That is lofty company to say the least, given the caliber of those MVP seasons.

As noted by NFL Stats before Week 17’s game against the New Orleans Saints—after which his quarterback rating climbed to 117.2—those three iconic quarterbacks mentioned by Kacsmar are the only ones to earn an equal or higher single-season passer rating. They all took home MVP hardware after those campaigns:

Matt Ryan’s Passer Rating: 115.5But will he win MVP? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/qdFTaVLNk1

— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) December 30, 2016

Perhaps some onlookers dock him points for having Julio Jones at his disposal. Yet, Ryan didn’t miss a beat in two games without his star wide receiver, during which he went 35-of-51 for 523 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.

His latest gem against the Saints (331 passing yards and four touchdowns) gave the 11-5 Falcons a first-round bye and the NFC’s best point differential (plus-134). It also should have secured Ryan’s MVP case. Everyone is making the MVP race harder than it needs to be.

                                    

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Conversely, would Brady preside so prominently in talks if he wasn’t Tom …

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