Sunday NBA Roundup: Can We Trust Atlanta Hawks’ Recent Success?

Just when it seems like a good idea to pass judgment on the Atlanta Hawks, they make us question everything we think we know.

Sunday night offered a perfect portrait of this controlled chaos.

It began with ESPN.com’s Marc Stein and Brian Windhorst reporting that Atlanta is open to trading soon-to-be free agents Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap and Thabo Sefolosha. It ended with the Hawks squeezing out a gutsy 114-112 overtime victory against the San Antonio Spurs, owners of the NBA’s second-best record.

Now, like we did when they began the season 9-2, and as we did yet again when they dropped 10 of 11 contests, we’re once more left to wonder: Who in the mother-loving heck are the 2016-17 Hawks?

It’s tempting to buy back into their Eastern Conference threat level given recent success. They have won three straight and eight of their last 12.

During this stretch, the Hawks are pumping in 107.2 points per 100 possessions—noticeably more flattering than the 99.0 they were tallying beforehand.

Beating the Spurs is, in a vacuum, a particularly encouraging sign. Atlanta trailed by as many as 10 points and couldn’t get going at the free-throw line (16-of-27), but it outscored San Antonio by 12 in the paint, 15 from beyond the arc and a whopping 21 in transition.

Millsap pieced together an otherworldly effort—the kind that makes would-be trade suitors salivate over his play and cringe at the thought of what it would cost to poach him, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Chris Vivlamore noted:

Gee, I guess the price for Paul Millsap just went up.

— Chris Vivlamore (@CVivlamoreAJC) January 2, 2017

At one point, Millsap, who played the entire second half, dropped 17 consecutive points, ensuring Atlanta didn’t fold after San Antonio went on a 9-0 run late in the third quarter. He finished with 32 points, 13 rebounds and three assists while shooting 11-of-23 from the field.

Tim Hardaway Jr. also went boom. He put up a career-high 29 points and posted a team-best plus-14 on a seemingly unending string of triples (6-of-7)—including a game-tying missile inside four seconds to play that forced the extra period:

This kid REALLY enjoyed Tim Hardaway Jr.’s clutch game-tying three https://t.co/8k7G3Bqhm7

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 2, 2017

It’s almost as if the New York Knicks were wrong about him or something, per Bleacher Report’s Ric Bucher:

Hawks beat Spurs after 11 straight losses, thanks to 29 off bench from Tim Hardaway Jr. And they said in NY he couldn’t play in this league.

— Ric Bucher (@RicBucher) January 2, 2017

Dennis Schroder continued to raise his offensive stock by getting into the lane and limiting miscues. He shot just 7-of-17 from the floor but dished out 10 assists and provided a general boon with his jittery drives.

Atlanta’s offense has been significantly better with him on the court during this 12-game mini-surge—a huge deal considering he was a net minus for an anemic attack through his first 22 appearances.

Korver, meanwhile, did both Korver and non-Korver things to the Spurs. He buried four of his nine three-point attempts, served as a secondary playmaker (four assists), grabbed eight rebounds and played pesky defense.

This was, in no uncertain terms, a big win. Atlanta is now within two games of the East’s No. 3 seed as the season approaches its halfway point, and head coach Mike Budenholzer has bragging rights over Philadelphia 76ers lead honcho Brett Brown, per NBA.com’s John Schuhmann:

That was the first win either Budenholzer or Brett Brown had against Popovich since they both left in 2013. Previously 0-12.

— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) January 2, 2017

And yet red flags abound. 

The Hawks’ trek back toward relevance has been anything but convincing. They have a negative net rating (minus-0.5) while winning eight of 12 and are hovering around the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. 

Crunch-time victories against the Detroit Pistons and Knicks to round out a three-game winning streak shouldn’t be celebrated. Detroit is struggling to carve out any sort of identity following Reggie Jackson’s return from thumb and knee injuries, and New York is a crummy basketball team masquerading as a playoff candidate.

Budenholzer has needed to tinker with the starting five as well. The preferred lineup of Kent Bazemore, Dwight Howard, Korver, Millsap and Schroder is being outscored by more than 10 points per 100 possessions when on the court.

Sefolosha has been subbed in for Korver over the last four tilts, and the resulting crew is much better. But that improvement feels unsustainable with Bazemore, Atlanta’s $70 million man, shooting under 40 percent and being forced to spend time at point guard.

The Hawks’ new starting five was a wash in nine minutes against the Spurs. Bazemore specifically was unplayable. He failed to crack 20 minutes of court time and logged all of eight seconds through the fourth quarter and overtime.

Most of Atlanta’s major issues aren’t going away. The …

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