Close Hall? 10 active players on Fame’s fence

With the 2017 National Baseball Hall of Fame class to be announced on Jan. 18, we’re this close to knowing who is in the next group of baseball immortals.

But what about the current players? Who has the best chances of joining the Class of 2017 sometime in the future? As Mike Petriello noted recently, there are, on average, 31 players each season who end up in Cooperstown. Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera — these are the easy ones. Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout are safe bets. The tough part is predicting the rest. There are many variables over the course of a career that make forecasting future Hall of Fame classes something of a fool’s errand.

Here are the still-borderline candidates — stars who could be on their way to the Hall, but still have some work to do. (Note: The similarity scores below were devised by Bill James and in this case are the retired player who plays the same position and is the most statistically similar through their current age.)

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, age 27 100-67, 2.99 ERA, 1,381 K, 25 WAR

Everything needs to break right, but Bumgarner and Kershaw both could get to 300 wins — a formerly magical milestone that has been written out of possibility for modern pitchers. But while Kershaw is a near-sure Hall of Famer already, Bumgarner probably needs to duplicate the outstanding six-year stretch that has started his career. Bumgarner’s legendary postseason success adds to his campaign, which includes four straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons. Now he just needs volume.Historical comp: Frank Tanana

Robinson Cano, 2B, age 34 .307/.355/.498, 278 HR, 1,086 RBI, 62 WAR

A seven-time All-Star, Cano ranks in the top 10 among second basemen in doubles (479), home runs (278), hitting (.307) and slugging (.498), and he is already in the same tier in terms of career WAR as Hall of Famers Jackie Robinson, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio.

Given Cano is under contract for seven more seasons, he’ll likely retire with all-time positional bests in several categories. At this rate, Cano needs just 113 hits per season to reach the 3,000 mark by the end of his contract. His wait for Cooperstown feels like a formality.Historical comp: Ryne Sandberg

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, age 28 383 G, 2.08 ERA, 182 SV, 13 WAR

Relievers seem to need some shtick to impress Hall voters, and that’ll be especially true of this era, with effective relievers both more plentiful and pitching in more limited roles. But Chapman could be remembered as a revolutionary — the hardest thrower ever — and retire the all-time leader in strikeouts per nine. He’s also saved more games, by percentage, than Mariano Rivera through seven seasons.Historical comp: N/A

Statcast: Chapman hits 105.1 mph BAL@NYY: Chapman hits 105.1 mph for fastest StatcastStatcast measures the velocity of Aroldis …

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