Pay that man his money: Arrieta worth it for Cubs

Signing a pitcher in his thirties to a monster contract is a risk. But in the case of the Cubs and Jake Arrieta, it represents the lesser risk. The bigger one is assuming that Arrieta can be replaced.

The Cubs have been searching for young, controllable starting pitching for years now. They’re driven by the uncertainty they’ll face when Arrieta and John Lackey reach free agency after next season.

But why not pay the price to have Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks under control through 2020? That would give the Cubs four more shots at championship behind the guys who started 14 of their 17 postseason games this past October. Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks were 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA over 83 1/3 postseason innings among them. They all handled the workload of long seasons and the high-stakes intensity of the World Series.

Shouldn’t the Cubs do everything they can to keep them together while they have the best lineup in the Major Leagues?

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras are all under the Cubs’ control through 2021. Keeping Arrieta in the rotation increases the odds that those guys can become this generation’s version of Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada, reaching triple digits in postseason games played.

Arrieta is a year away from free agency. His agent, Scott Boras, said at the Winter Meetings that any talk about a possible extension to keep him with the Cubs will come in January, when the sides meet to discuss Arrieta’s 2017 salary (estimated at $16.8 million by MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration projections). The Cubs should view this as a critical negotiation to keep an invaluable piece of their puzzle.

What is Arrieta worth? How about $28 million a year for six years ($168 million total), with an opt-out clause after three years? I’d even go to seven years, $200 million if that was what it took.

There was a time in 2016 when Arrieta’s mechanics got off and he looked mortal — 7-6 with a 4.44 ERA in his final 16 regular-season starts, beginning on June 27 — but he got himself locked in for the postseason and was a huge team-first player when …

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