2017 NBA Draft: Breaking Down the Top of the Stacked Point Guard Class

The 2017 NBA draft could potentially see five point guards go in the lottery—the most in 25-plus years. 

Washington’s Markelle Fultz, UCLA’s Lonzo Ball, Kentucky’s De’Aaron Fox, North Carolina State’s Dennis Smith Jr. and France’s Frank Ntilikina have each flashed starter upside with the necessary tools and skill sets to thrive at the NBA level.

Volume production and/or efficiency have only helped strengthen their cases.

There are also a number of teams projected to pick early that could either upgrade their point guard situation (Philadelphia 76ers, Dallas Mavericks, Orlando Magic) or make room for another (Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, Boston Celtics). 

I ranked each guard three separate times—in three key aspects of his game, with No. 5 being the worst—based on current play and likelihood of improving.

Scoring

5. Lonzo Ball

Ball’s skeptics can make a compelling argument about limited scoring potential. 

His 15.8 points per 40 minutes rank last among the other top NCAA point guards. Though unselfish with an identity that revolves around passing and facilitating, his point-producing attack has holes in it. 

Through 13 games, Ball has converted 32 times at the rim, 29 three-pointers and just one shot in between, per Hoop-Math.com. He’s yet to show much of a pull-up or floater game, important weapons for half-court offense. 

Lacking vertical explosiveness and upper body strength, he’s no lock to excel around the hoop, either. Getting there may be the greater challenge for Ball, who takes 2.9 free-throw attempts per game and has only converted three unassisted field goals at the rim in the half court (not including putbacks). 

He is knocking down 2.2 threes per game, however. A confident shot-maker, Ball wouldn’t be the first player with unorthodox shooting mechanics to succeed, but until we see his odd release work against NBA defenders, it’s still tough to fully buy into his jumper even if nearly every other part of his game works in spades. 

  

4. De’Aaron Fox

Fox averages 16.3 points a game, mostly by putting heavy pressure on the basket and interior defense. Of his 68 made field goals, 48 have come at the rim. 

His speed and shiftiness make defenses look silly in transition. With 25 buckets in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock through 12 games, he’s been a good bet for four easy fastbreak points per game (as a scorer). But he’s also shaken a number of individuals, including Ball, with advanced ball-handling and quickness in the half court.

At the rim, he’s shown the bounce to dunk effortlessly and the coordination to adjust midair. However, Fox shoots 43.9 percent from the floor with an ugly 51.3 percent true shooting percentage.

The three-point arc is currently out of his comfort zone, having made just 4-of-26 triples. And though capable of pulling up or tossing in a runner, he hasn’t been efficient, making 29.1 percent of his 55 two-point jumper attempts. 

Fox has flashed potential around the perimeter, mostly inside the arc, but he’s clearly behind Ntilikina, Smith and Fultz in terms of shot-making. 

  

3. Frank Ntilikina

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MVP of December’s U18 European Championships after putting up 23 points against Italy in the semis (December 21) and 31 on Lithuania (December 22) during the finals, Ntilikina showcased scoring potential that hasn’t been fully visible in LNB Pro A (13.1 minutes per game) or Basketball Champions League (18 minutes). 

Averaging just 5.5 points between the two, Ntilikina has had a limited role with Strausborg IG (17.2 percent usage, lowest among the lottery point guards). Despite playing mostly off the ball, he’s still been efficient, shooting 48.7 percent from the floor, a tribute to his versatility and knack for capitalizing opportunistically. 

A big reason for his success so far as a teenager among pros: Ntilikina is connecting from outside. During 2016-17, he’s shot 47.1 percent (16-of-34) from behind the arc, a number he helped validate with France at the U18s last week by drilling 17-of-29 three-pointers. 

With sharp ball-handling, we saw crossovers into jumpers and pull-up after pull-up that highlighted improved shot creativity and perimeter scoring potential.  

2. Dennis Smith Jr.

Smith will enter the league with the reputation of a scoring point guard in the mold of Damian Lillard.

A 6’3″ jet, averaging 18.9 points on 45.3 percent shooting, Smith’s attacking ability represents his signature strength, thanks to a quick first step, tight handle and athleticism. He uses transition, ball screens and isolation to change directions and blow by. Between his driving prowess and confidence, he projects as a frequent visitor of the free-throw line, where he’s currently making 79.7 percent of his 6.6 foul shots a game.

Smith’s two-point pull-up and floater need work (12-of-44), but he’s looked capable, while his free-throw percentage and 1.7 threes per game (38.5 percent) create optimism over his shooting potential. 

Having just combined to …

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