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NFL Picks Week 17: Advice on Final Regular-Season Vegas Odds and Spreads
- Updated: December 27, 2016
The New England Patriots will be playing for the top seed in the AFC playoffs when they take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. The Dolphins, already a playoff team, seem to have little at stake.
The Dolphins are the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs at this point, but they do have a slight chance to move up to No. 5. If they can beat the Patriots at home—something they did a year ago in the regular-season finale—and the Kansas City Chiefs lose their last game on the road against the San Diego Chargers, they would move up to the No. 5 seed.
The difference there is that the fifth seed would get to play the AFC South champion Houston Texans (9-6), while the sixth seed would have to play the explosive Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), winners of six games in a row and owners of one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in the game. Houston is locked into the fourth seed, and Pittsburgh can’t move from the No. 3 seed.
So don’t say Miami has nothing to play for, which is the way the oddsmakers have looked at this game against New England. There’s no doubt that the Patriots have played with purpose all season, leading to a brilliant 13-2 record. But the Dolphins are 10-5 after starting the season with a 1-4 record.
New England opened as a six-point favorite, according to OddsShark.
The Dolphins will try to beat the Patriots with backup quarterback Matt Moore under center, as Ryan Tannehill is out with a knee injury. It seems like a long shot, but the Dolphins have the talent to keep this game close.
Miami will try to attack the Patriots with running back Jay Ajayi, who has run for 1,213 yards and has had three 200-yard rushing games this season. He has the power to get past the point of attack and the speed to go long once he gets to the second level.
The Dolphins also have a big-play receiver in Jarvis Landry, who has caught 85 passes for 1,060 yards. While he has just three touchdowns, he does have 16 …
