Crunch time: Ranking postseason moments

It’s one thing to finally win a title after 108 years of heartbreak, as the Cubs did in 2016. It’s quite another to win it in the way they did. Sure, a four-game sweep with huge margins of victory would have counted just the same, but to win it in seven games? In extra innings? After the best closer in baseball blew the lead by allowing a tying home run in the bottom of the eighth? And with a rain delay thrown in?

Even without the added historical significance included, there’s a pretty solid argument to make that 2016 provided us with the most memorable World Series of our lifetimes. With the year coming to an end, it made us think about looking back and putting what we saw into the proper context. Were there moments from the Cubs’ run to the title that stacked up among the best moments we’ve ever seen?

The answer: Yes. And we can prove it. In order to quantify postseason moments, we’ll use “Championship Win Probability Added,” first created by Dave Studeman at The Hardball Times. The short version is that it takes Win Probability Added, which quantifies the change in the likelihood of victory from one plate appearance to the next, and adds in a multiplier based on postseason importance. That is, a game-tying homer in Game 7 of the World Series is quite a bit more important than a game-tying homer in Game 2 of the Division Series, for example.

So, with a tip of the cap to The Wall Street Journal and Grantland, who have done similar breakdowns for the NBA and MLB, respectively, let’s take a trip through postseason history, beginning with the advent of the World Series in 1903, and find the most important plays in a variety of categories based on Championship Win Probability Added. You probably have some of history’s most famous plays in mind. You’re probably wondering where the 2016 Cubs fit in. And hopefully, you learn about some of the best and most-forgotten plays of all time. Let’s say goodbye to 2016 in style.

HOME RUNS

3. Bill Mazeroski, 1960 World Series Game 7 — 37.1 percent cWPA added

Come up with any list of history’s most famous World Series homers you like — Kirk Gibson in 1988, Joe Carter in 1993, Carlton Fisk in 1975, etc. — and this one is guaranteed to be on it. After all, it didn’t just break a 9-9 tie in Game 7. It literally ended the Series. When Mazeroski stepped to the plate, the Pirates had a 63 percent chance of winning the game, since they were the home team in a tied walk-off situation. When he took Ralph Terry deep to end it, the win probability was 100 percent — the game was over. The jump from 63 percent to 100 percent is 37 points.

There’s a fun fact about this homer that few people remember: It wasn’t even the most important homer of the game. More on that in a second.

2. Rajai Davis, 2016 World Series Game 7 — 39.2 percent cWPA added

If the initial question was “did the 2016 World Series have legendary moments,” well, yes, except that this one wasn’t for the Cubs, it was against them. Davis’ eighth-inning homer off Aroldis Chapman not only tied the game — and, likely, made every Cubs fan on Earth wonder if they’d manage to blow their best chance in decades — but it ended up being the second-most valuable homer in postseason history.

But the truth is, we’re never going to remember this home run the way we ought to because Cleveland didn’t win. If the Indians had broken their own title drought in 2016, they’d be building statues of Davis outside Progressive Field. Maybe they ought to consider it anyway.

1. Hal Smith, 1960 World Series Game 7 — 64.7 percent cWPA added

Smith’s homer gives Bucs lead 1960 WS Gm7: Hal Smith’s three-run homer in 8th10/13/60: Hal Smith’s three-run home run with two outs in the bottom of the 8th gives the Pirates a 9-7 lead over the Yankees in Game 7

You don’t remember Hal Smith. No one does! That’s because Mazeroski’s walk-off “felt” more important, but in terms of value, Smith’s eighth-inning homer was much more crucial. Why? Because at the time, the Yankees were up 7-6, and were only four outs from a title. As stunning as Mazeroski’s homer was, the game was tied, and the worst-case scenario would be that the game would go into extras.

When Smith homered, the career backup backstop swung the win expectancy by more than 60 percent, going from just under 30 percent before to 93 percent after. It’s the biggest swing in baseball history. If not for the fact that Pirates pitchers Bob Friend and Harvey Haddix blew the lead in the ninth, turning a 9-7 lead into a 9-9 tie, we’d be talking about Smith all these decades later the way we talk about Mazeroski.

ERRORS

3. Tony Fernandez, 1997 World Series Game 7 — 19.3 percent cWPA added

Craig Counsell, now Milwaukee’s manager, was the MVP of the 2001 NLCS, was on first when Arizona walked off against Mariano Rivera in the 2001 World Series and had actually been responsible for tying Game 7 of the 1997 Fall Classic for the Marlins in the first place with a ninth-inning sacrifice fly. You might say he knows something about big postseason moments.

Yet none were bigger than his seemingly innocuous grounder to second base in the bottom of the 11th of a 2-2 game. With Bobby Bonilla on first, Fernandez let the ball sneak under his glove, putting men at the corners. An intentional walk loaded the bases, and Devon White’s groundout forced …

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