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Scouting: Anticipating decline
- Updated: December 23, 2016
What are the clues that a player is finished? How do you pick up an experienced bargain? In the next part of our Changing Face of Scouting series, with clubs lining up January transfer targets, experienced scout Rob Mackenzie explains how to identify ageing players on their way out and those who still have plenty to offer…
The sight of Ryan Giggs scoring for Manchester United against Everton at the age of 39 or the 40-year-old Francesco Totti still wowing his adoring crowd at Roma could convince anyone that quality is timeless. Class, as they say, is permanent.
But for every player able to sustain such levels well into their 30s, there are many others who are a fading force while still eligible to go on an 18-30 holiday. Identifying whether a player falls into the first category or the second is critical for any scout.
Spot the big name available on a free transfer who is still capable of performing and a fortune can be saved. Award a lucrative contract to a player whose legs and motivation have gone and it can prove an expensive mistake instead.
But there are clues that can help clubs to make the right decision. When newly-promoted Leicester signed a 34-year-old Esteban Cambiasso in 2014, it wasn’t because they were star-struck. Rob Mackenzie and the rest of their scouting team had done their homework.
“People might have had the idea that Cambiasso was over the hill, but his profile didn’t reveal that at all,” Mackenzie tells Sky Sports. “The reality was that he had played in 80 per cent of Inter’s matches in his final season at the club.
“That suggested he was still doing the business. When we delved deeper into his character, the references were spot on. I remember the first day that he …
