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With the Playoffs on the Line, Should the Broncos Miss Peyton Manning?
- Updated: December 22, 2016
Early in the fourth quarter against the Patriots, with the Broncos pinned deep in their own territory like a turtle on its shell, I really started to miss him.
Trevor Siemian scrambled from a clean pocket in his own end zone for a minimal gain. Justin Forsett took one of those doomed Gary Kubiak second-and-long handoffs and went nowhere. Third down was the typical Broncos surrender: no one got open, the protection collapsed, Siemian threw an errant pass and a lineman drew a holding flag to complete the inside straight.
Another three-and-out. Another listless, hopeless-feeling offensive performance. Another loss.
Maybe the Broncos needed Peyton Manning this year.
Sure, we all miss Manning Prime, the All-Pro who sliced, diced and Omaha’d his way out of bad field position a billion times over 17 years. The Broncos wouldn’t mind having that Manning back.
But the Broncos offense has been so flat in recent weeks that it might actually miss last year’s Manning: the junkball-tossing, turnover-dispensing rusted-out chassis of a Hall of Famer who led the Broncos to a Super Bowl with the help of an outstanding defense, some Jedi mind tricks and carefully-rationed glimpses of his former greatness.
As the Broncos enter a two-game stretch against the Chiefs and Raiders that will decide their playoff fate, surely Manning’s audible-calling, decision-making, leadership or intangibles might be missed. At the very least, Manning’s presence would keep Aqib Talib from running his mouth in the locker room after a loss. That’s worth something, right?
Maybe. Or maybe this is just misplaced nostalgia at the end of a frustrating season.
Three-and-Out of Commission.
Three-and-outs have become a staple of the meager Broncos offensive diet. According to Football Outsiders, they have gone three-and-out on 31.3 percent of drives so far this year, the worst rate in the NFL. Their five three-and-outs on 12 drives against the Patriots last week nudged them below the Rams.
The three-and-out problem starts on first down. The Broncos average just 3.5 yards per rush and 6.5 yards per pass on first down this season. Last season, they averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per rush and 7.1 yards per pass on first down.
Having a healthy C.J. Anderson for much of last season made a difference. But part of the first-down success may have been the Manning factor at work—making audibles and adjustments, getting the Broncos into better plays. With the inexperienced Siemian and a running back committee of castoffs and youngsters, the Broncos are blander than vanilla on first downs. They are Kubiak cottage cheese.
If Manning’s experience and leadership helped the Broncos sustain drives, however, the effect was small. Last year, the Broncos went three-and-out on 27.6 percent of drives: 30th in the NFL. They also suffered interceptions on a whopping 12 percent of drives in 2015, second-worst in the NFL, as opposed to 5.5 percent (10th overall) this year. It’s hard to argue that a 3.7 percentage point bump in stalled drives is worth a greater number of extended drives if it also comes with a 6.5 percentage point increase in interceptions.
If Manning’s …
