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Best of rest: Top 10 remaining free agents
- Updated: December 22, 2016
When Hot Stove season officially began six weeks ago, MLB.com released its list of the top 25 free agents, based on a projection system devised by MLB.com’s analytics guru Tom Tango.
It’s a WAR-based version of the Marcel projection system that Tango created years ago and gives the most weight to 2016 and the least to ’14, while also adjusting for age. (For more details on this new system, aka WARcel, read Tom’s blog, and check out the original top-25 list.)
With the Winter Meetings in the rearview mirror and the calendar almost ready to flip to 2017, the majority of those 25 players have signed. But eight remain on the open market, and they have been joined by two who were non-tendered after the original list was released.
• Hot Stove Tracker
It’s important to remember that these projections are estimates and that players who fall within a few tenths of a win could easily be flipped. In other words, take the exact order with a grain of salt.
With that in mind, here are the top 10 remaining free agents of the 2016-17 offseason, based on WARcel projections for 2017. (Note: Ages listed are “seasonal ages,” meaning as of July 1, 2017.)
1. Edwin Encarnacion, DH/1B2017 WAR projection: 3.22017 age: 34 Encarnacion’s age, his attachment to a Draft pick and the glut of power bats on the market all could be contributing to a slow free-agent process for the slugger. Clubs with an obvious hole at first base, such as the Rangers and Indians, still make a great deal of sense, though. If Encarnacion lowers his demands and considers a shorter-term deal, that could widen his appeal, especially for a National League team such as the Rockies or Cardinals that would have to play him in the field.Educated guess: Rangers
2. Luis Valbuena, 3B/1B2017 WAR projection: 1.82017 age: 31 Valbuena is looking for a multiyear deal that will set him up to play every day, the New York Post has reported. Unfortunately for Valbuena, few teams are in the market for a third baseman this offseason. In fact, those that have been tied to Valbuena thus far (Rays, Yankees) already have a regular at the hot corner.Educated guess: Yankees
3. Colby Rasmus, OF2017 WAR projection: 1.82017 age: 30 Rasmus’ name hasn’t come up in many rumors, though the Orioles, Blue Jays, Giants, Indians and Mariners are among the logical landing spots. Finding one may take a while because Rasmus is coming off postseason surgeries on his hip and core muscles. The left-handed hitter, who also had a cyst removed …