Re-Examining Rafael Nadal’s French Open Chances After Monte Carlo Masters Win

Now that Rafael Nadal has recaptured his Monte Carlo crown for the first time since 2012, his prospects for the French Open are on the rise.

If Nadal were a stock, the time to purchase would have been a few weeks ago in the Miami Masters after he withdrew due to illness, heat exhaustion and a loss to Damir Dzumhur, an exit all but inconceivable a few years ago.

Was the king of clay no longer a contender?

Even loyal Rafaholics could have been excused for doubting his chances on clay. After all, the 2014 French Open was from a bygone era, and Nadal hasn’t since been the same.

What a difference a week makes. Nadal’s title was more than a journey down memory lane. The road to Paris is still navigable, and the nine-time French Open champion is trudging along with fellow hiker Opportunity. Nadal fans chirped on Twitter with more optimism. Comments sections on media articles thickened with ranges of predictions.

Is the king of clay back? The tennis gods love French drama, and Nadal has thickened the plot. Will Nadal return as the conquering comeback story at Roland Garros with Djokovic as the tortured victim?

Will Rafael #Nadal capture another French Open title in 2016? Novak Djokovic still the strong favourite – RT=Yes pic.twitter.com/34kLW6pG9D

— Tennis Tips UK (@TennisTipsUK) April 18, 2016

Glass Half Full

By slow degrees, Nadal has shaken off his 2015 malaise. Last year, he flopped in the majors and got shut out from the European clay-court swing before damage control with a July title against a weak field at Hamburg.

He made gradual improvements on fast surfaces in the fall, peaking with his three round-robin victories at the World Tour Finals but struggling to defeat top-10 opponents. He won only four of those 14 top-10 matches before the WTF.

In 2016, Nadal has improved with a 3-2 record against top-10 opponents—losing twice to Djokovic but defeating Kei Nishikori at Indian Wells and beating Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray at Monte Carlo.

He also avenged a tough defeat to Dominic Thiem in February at Argentina, returning the favor with a gritty, adrenaline-soaked slugfest against the rising Austrian star.

The good news for Nadal is he is fighting hard. He has not forgot how to move and react on clay, even if it’s more difficult these days to track down high-octane shots from bold, young opponents on his well-worn knees. …

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