Mike Freeman’s 10-Point Stance: Playoff Picture Is Starting to Come into Focus

Sorting out the playoff picture, understanding the Jets’ woes and reassessing our view of Todd Gurley. 

   

1. Contenders, Pretenders and Frauds

In a league where often there are few surprises, one thing has legitimately shocked me: how many people across the NFL believe the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in football. 

I think it’s Dallas, Oakland or New England. Take your pick. But the Chiefs? What was I overlooking?

In speaking to several front-office executives and veteran players, I was given three main reasons: 1. They are a conservative, defense-oriented team built to win in the postseason; 2. They are well-coached by Andy Reid and his staff; and 3. Their quarterback, Alex Smith, makes few mistakes.

In theory, it would seem the Kansas City offense would need to take more chances, and be more aggressive, to stay with prolific offenses like those in Oakland and New England (though Chiefs backers say the loss of Rob Gronkowski is another reason the Chiefs are better). But the executives with whom B/R spoke think Kansas City is so top-heavy with defense and special teams that it can make up for its conservative offensive ways. 

All of us will have a better idea Thursday night, when the Chiefs play the Raiders. If Kansas City wins that contest, then, hell, it might be just that good.

Now in the thick of the playoff stretch run, let’s break down the contenders, pretenders and frauds.

Contenders (in order of contender-ness)

Cowboys: For all those waiting for Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to hit a rookie wall, it’s time to say it won’t happen. This team is for real, the best in football.

Patriots: They lose Gronkowski but have, you know, Tom Brady.

Raiders: An argument could be made they are the best team in football. Why? They have two vital elements for a Super Bowl team—a hot quarterback and excellent coaching. 

Chiefs: They are making me a believer. What they did in Atlanta shows a versatility few other teams (if any) possess. And they can boast of road wins against the Falcons, Broncos and Raiders.

Seahawks: Seattle has suffered some nasty injuries, but I’m a believer in Russell Wilson.

Packers: If they make the playoffs—and they will—no team will want to play them. 

   

Possible Pretenders (in order of most pretender-ness)

Dolphins: I wrote recently that it’s safe to finally start believing in Ryan Tannehill. Can I take that column back?

Ravens: A brutal, hard-hitting defense. The problem is Joe Flacco. He might be great in the postseason. Or he might not.

Steelers: The defense just isn’t that good, ranking 14th in yards allowed per game.

Broncos: Good defense, obviously, but the quarterback play is still worrisome.

Lions: They have shown a great deal of heart, but the Lions simply cannot keep winning games with comeback after comeback. It will eventually catch up with them.

Buccaneers: I debated this one long and hard. Jameis Winston is the real deal, but I’m not convinced there’s enough talent on the roster to make a run.

Giants: Which Eli Manning will the team get down the stretch?

   

Frauds (in order of putridity)

Texans: Two words—Brock Osweiler. 

Falcons: Not a believer in Matt Ryan at the end of the season and especially in the playoffs.

Cardinals: It’s over. They’re not catching anyone unless Carson Palmer plays more consistently.

Titans: The remaining schedule includes the Broncos, at the Chiefs, at Jacksonville and home against the Texans. The Jaguars are a vacation, but those first two games are nasty.

Vikings: No way Sam Bradford leads this team anywhere except to call Uber for a ride to the airport and home for the playoffs.

Bills: The collapse to the Raiders likely doomed their playoff hopes.

I’m not certain where to place one team in particular, and that’s the Colts. They are confusing. I could see this team making a Super Bowl run or flaming out. The defense is still a sieve, and as talented as Andrew Luck is, he is still prone to mental errors.

     

2. It’s Not Easy Being Green

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