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Can the Patriots Survive Another Rob Gronkowski Absence?
- Updated: December 1, 2016
If the New England Patriots are going to reach their seventh Super Bowl in the last 16 years, they’ll likely have to do so without the world’s best tight end.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Rob Gronkowski is expected to miss two months after he undergoes back surgery on Friday, leaving quarterback Tom Brady without his top weapon for the remainder of the regular season and likely most, if not all of the playoffs.
Are the Pats doomed without Gronk? Most of us know better by now than to count Bill Belichick and Co. out, regardless of the circumstances. This, after all, is a team that went 11-5 without Brady himself in 2008 and has fared well without Gronkowski in the past.
That said, the challenge just became a hell of a lot more daunting for a flawed and aging New England team.
Don’t lay them to rest
The Patriots have proved time and again they can win with or without almost anybody, including their three-time first-team All-Pro tight end.
Dating back to the start of 2012, Gronkowski has been either inactive or extremely limited (playing less than 70 percent of New England’s offensive snaps) for 27 regular-season games. In those games, the Pats are 21-6 (.778) and have averaged 26.4 points per game.
During that same span, Gronk has been active and has played a strong majority of offensive snaps in 47 regular-season games. In those games, the Pats are 36-11 (.766) and have averaged 32.0 points per game.
(Excluded from both samples is the final game of the 2014 regular season, when the Patriots rested Gronk and many other key players.)
So yes, they’ve won just as often during the regular season with a healthy Gronk as they have without a healthy Gronk, but they score nearly six fewer points per outing.
But in 2016 alone, they’re 5-0 with Gronk either out or limited and are averaging 26.6 points per game under those circumstances. With him playing most offensive snaps, they’re 4-2 and averaging 26.7 points per game.
This year, they’ve been better without him than with him. And historically, his absence has cost them a handful of points per game but hasn’t cost them in the win column.
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