Newly available Carter provides low-cost alternative to Trumbo

Mark Trumbo just hit 47 homers with a high strikeout rate and limited defensive value, and after receiving a qualifying offer from Baltimore, he’s probably going to get something like $60 million this offseason while headed into his age-31 season. Chris Carter just hit 41 homers with a high strikeout rate and limited defensive value, and after Milwaukee imported Eric Thames from Korea, Carter is reportedly going to get … non-tendered and set free, heading into his age-30 season.

No one will give Carter $60 million. No one would consider it or come close. But is there really that much of a difference between these one-dimensional sluggers? And if there’s not, shouldn’t there be more than a few teams that would much prefer to go with Carter for a fraction of the cost and without losing a Draft pick?

Let’s show some quick comparisons here to illustrate our point.

2016 Carter:   644 PA — .222/.321/.499 — 41 HR — 112 wRC+ — 0.9 WAR Trumbo: 667 PA — .256/.316/.533 — 47 HR — 123 wRC+ — 2.2 WAR

2013-16 Carter:   2261 PA — .219/.315/.470 — 131 HR — 113 wRC+ — 3.8 WAR Trumbo: 2252 PA — .247/.304/.470 — 117 HR — 109 wRC+ — 4.3 WAR

2017 projections (Steamer) Carter:   578 PA — .221/.321/.470 — 34 HR — 106 wRC+ — 0.9 WAR Trumbo: 587 PA — .254/.314/.481 — 31 HR — 109 wRC+ — 1.1 WAR

Your takeaway from all that ought to be that these two are extremely similar players. It’s true that Trumbo has a higher batting average, but it’s also true that batting average doesn’t really matter any longer. Carter has been as good or better at getting on base, and the fact that their slugging percentages over the past four seasons have been completely identical is stunning. Neither one even has an appreciable career platoon split. Each are similar right-handed sluggers with contact issues.

Last offseason, that package was valued at “needing to throw in a reliever to get a backup catcher,” which is what happened when Seattle traded Trumbo and C.J. Riefenhauser to Baltimore for Steve Clevenger. Trumbo can play a little outfield, while Carter has limited experience there, and Trumbo is probably a somewhat better defensive first baseman, too, so that matters. But does it matter to the tune of tens of millions of dollars and a Draft pick? It’s hard to think that it does.

So if your favorite team happens to be interested in Trumbo, perhaps Carter is a nice lower-cost alternative. Where could he …

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