Texans’ Gamble on Brock Osweiler May Cost Them the AFC South

This wasn’t how things were supposed to go for the Houston Texans in 2016.

After winning the AFC South a season ago at 9-7 and getting smoked at home by the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Round, the Texans made a move that was supposed to put them over the top.

A big move. An expensive move.

And yet, in signing quarterback Brock Osweiler to a $72 million contract that includes $37 million in guarantees over the first two years, the Texans are right back where they started—barely above .500, clinging desperately to first place in the NFL’s worst division and hoping they can win football games not because of their quarterback, but in spite of him.

The Texans weren’t able to do that in Week 12, falling at home for the first time this season. It wasn’t hard to pinpoint why the Texans lost 21-13 to the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. Osweiler was awful.     

Against the Bolts, the 26-year-old failed to complete 60 percent of his passes. He posted a passer rating of less than 50. And most importantly, Osweiler threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter as Houston attempted to mount a comeback.

Osweiler himself told Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com that he didn’t play well against San Diego:

I just felt like the rest of the football team today — and especially the defense, special teams, the offensive line — I really felt like those guys went out there and truly battled and played great football. I need to play better for us to win. I feel like our team gave us the opportunity to win today. This is a damn good football team, and I let them down today. I need to play better.

The problem is that Sunday’s clunker is far from an isolated occurrence. In fact, given how many eggs he’s laid and the number of wobbling quackers he’s chucked toward the sky in 2016, it’s fair to wonder if Osweiler thinks he’s a duck.

Osweiler has only two starts this season without an interception, and he has three in which he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Sunday’s passer rating of 45.6 was a season low and the fifth time in 11 games that Osweiler’s rating came in under 70.

A glance at more advanced metrics doesn’t make Osweiler look a bit better. Of 30 qualifying quarterbacks at Pro Football Focus, Osweiler is tied for dead last with Ryan Fitzpatrick—behind the likes of Case Keenum.

That’s right—worse than Case flipping Keenum, who led the Los Angeles Rams to a 4-5 record before being benched in favor of rookie Jared Goff.

Osweiler is tied with Fitzpatrick and Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars for the NFL lead in interceptions with 13. The Texans signal-caller is also last in yards per attempt (5.77) and 27th in completion percentage (59.5).

The hits just keep coming. Osweiler is also last in PFF’s modified QB rating, which accounts for “dropped passes, …

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