NFL1000: Is Trevor Siemian Good Enough to Be the Broncos’ Long-Term Starter?

When Peyton Manning retired following the 2015 season, it solved one problem for the Denver Broncos and created another.

Through most of Denver’s Super Bowl season, Manning was dog-awful—impacted by injuries that severely limited his accuracy and velocity, he was essentially an innocent bystander in a season that allowed him to go out on top. It was a relief that he realized this and bowed out gracefully.

However, there was the small matter of replacing him. Backup Brock Osweiler, who acquitted himself fairly well when Manning couldn’t go last season, rejected the team’s free-agent offers and toddled off to Houston, where he’s been entirely unremarkable. Denver selected Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch in the first round and traded a conditional seventh-round pick to the Eagles for Mark Sanchez.

In addition, they had Trevor Siemian, the Northwestern alum drafted by the Broncos in the seventh round of the 2015 draft.  

I hadn’t done a ton of tape work on Siemian until the 2016 preseason, when Manning was out the door and Siemian was competing with Lynch for the starting job (Sanchez was released in early September). I had done tape work on Lynch—in fact, I did tape work with Lynch the day before the draft. Based on what I saw and what he said, I felt that Lynch had all the tools, but was a while away from reading the field and making quick decisions in the ways NFL quarterbacks must do to succeed.

When I watched Siemian this preseason, two positives stood out, and they’re important positives: He has a quick, efficient release, and he throws with consistent mechanics that allow the ball to zip out of his hand. He doesn’t have to overthrow because he’s using his lower body to derive strength, and he understands the concept of applying upper-body torque to add velocity. There were issues with field reads and route communication, but perhaps most importantly, Siemian played at the right speed after the snap—he processed things quickly if not always perfectly, and he was decisive in the right ways.

Eventually, Siemian won the starting job, which put him in a bit of a pressure situation: Coached by a former NFL quarterback in Gary Kubiak, on a team run by perhaps the best quarterback of all time in John Elway, replacing perhaps the best quarterback of all time in Manning, and trying to help the defending Super Bowl champs back to the big game.

Oh, and he stepped over two first-round draft picks (yes, Virginia, Mark Sanchez was a first-round draft pick way back when) to get there. No big deal.

Elway was the one who made it public on Sept. 5: Siemian would go into the 2016 season as the starter.

“Trevor is the guy,” Elway said, per Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com. “We have a lot of confidence in Trevor and believe that he can do the job. It’s Trevor’s job, but he’s not going to be looking over his shoulder. He’s got a lot of support. Trevor earned the job. I’m excited about it. I’m excited to see him play and I think we’re in good shape there.”

One advantage Siemian has is a head coach in Kubiak who will bring him along in ways that are helpful. As a play-caller, Kubiak is perhaps the NFL’s biggest proponent of boot action, in which the quarterback fakes to the running back and rolls to his dominant side (the right side, in most cases). This presents a few advantages for a young quarterback. First, Siemian doesn’t have to read the full field when rolling right; boot action cuts the field in half. Second, it gives him a clearer picture with a free area of field to find his receivers with less defensive pressure. Finally, if the quarterback is mobile (and Siemian is, to …

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