Early On-Court Impressions of Top 2017 NBA Draft Prospects

Assessments can change from now until June 22, but first impressions of NBA prospects help create a foundation from which to scout.

No longer dealing in offseason theoreticals or past performance we can now monitor how they grow, improve or plateau. 

Most of this year’s top names are off to encouraging starts, and we haven’t even yet seen Duke’s top-three freshmen (injuries) who could all wind up in the lottery. 

The following prospects are viewed as consensus first-rounders if they choose to declare in 2017. Only those who’ve played a total of three games were eligible for an early breakdown. Top prospects who didn’t qualify include: California’s Ivan Rabb and Duke’s Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles and Marques Bolden. 

     

Tyler Lydon (Syracuse, PF, 6’9″, Sophomore)

Key numbers: 9.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 46.2 percent 3PT

With Syracuse having played four games and won by an average of 33.8 points, it’s tough to put much stock into Tyler Lydon’s early-season play. Praised for his coveted mix of shooting and athleticism coming in, he hasn’t disappointed. He’s hit six of his first 13 three-point attempts and looked stronger physically, which has shown up under the boards.

Lydon’s averaging 10.8 rebounds per 40 minutes after grabbing just 8.3 as a freshman, while his activity and jumper create stretch-4 potential every NBA team chases. 

He’s shown signs (on a few plays) of improved shot-creating and one-on-one offense. Still, it’s not an area of his game that’s poised to take off. His upside isn’t as enticing or attractive as his clear fit in today’s league.

Lydon is a low-risk, low-reward NBA role player, and he’ll be worth drafting anywhere in the second half of June’s first round.

Offseason draft projection: Mid-to-late first round

Current draft projection: Mid-to-late first round

              

Bam Adebayo (Kentucky, PF/C, 6’10”, Freshman)

Key numbers: 10.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 55.2 percent FG, 1.4 BPG

The first thing that sticks out about Edrice “Bam” Adebayo is his chiseled upper body. Toned at 260 pounds, his combination of power and bounce has led to easy buckets off dump-downs, lobs and offensive rebounds. 

He’s also flashed signs of a jump hook in the lane and a baseline spin move with his back to the basket. Having made 19 of his first 30 free throws (63.3 percent), he’s had capable touch out to 15 feet, though becoming a pick-and-pop option or a mid-range shooter would likely require a few years of consistent improvement. 

Used in just 19 percent of Kentucky possessions, per Sports-Reference.com, he’s still a below-average offensive player/shot creator who relies mostly on physical tools and his athleticism for scoring. Defensively, he’s gotten lost trying to defend ball screens. His 16.5 percent defensive rebounding percentage and 6.7 percent block percentage are also underwhelming, given his strength and his leaping ability. 

Though it may be unfair to give Adebayo a label after just five college games, his NBA projection is trending more toward energizer as opposed to post scorer or rim protector. That knocks him down a tier in my 2017 prospect rankings.

Offseason draft projection: Late-lottery to mid-first round

Current draft projection: Mid-to-late first round

      

OG Anunoby (Indiana, SF, 6’8″, Freshman)

Key numbers: 9.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.0 SPG

Anunoby was hit with unfair expectations after playing just 13.7 minutes per game as a freshman. His role has dramatically increased (24.3 minutes per game), but his physical tools, athleticism and motor remain far ahead of his skills.

Anunoby’s strengths still shine on defense, where his size, length and quickness translate to pressure and valuable versatility. He did a solid job on Kansas Jayhawks freshman Josh Jackson (November 11), a No. 1 overall candidate who didn’t make much noise during Indiana’s opening-night win.

A season ago, Anunoby converted 13 of 29 threes, and scouts were hoping to see his jumper come to life this year. At 4-of-13 from deep, the sample is too small to judge, but he’s clearly capable of sinking triples and improving. 

In the half court, he still lets his athleticism do most of the talking. He’s picked up buckets by spinning past defenders in the post or cutting—not dribbling one-on-one.

Average ball-handling and poor shot-creating ability limit his offensive potential. But assuming he can make a case as a threatening spot-up shooter, NBA teams should still be willing to use a first-round pick on his three-and-D potential. Based on his first four games, the mid-to-late first round sounds like a more reasonable landing spot than the lottery.

Offseason draft projection: Late lottery

Current draft projection: Mid-to-late first round

             

De’Aaron Fox (Kentucky, PG, 6’3″, Freshman)

Key numbers: 15.4 PPG, 7.6 APG, 1.8 SPG

Averaging 7.6 assists per game, De’Aaron Fox looks like Kentucky’s most dynamic playmaker since John Wall. With 42.1 percent of those assists coming in transition, he’s clearly at his best initiating the break and pushing the ball off misses and makes.

Fox is fast and uses his ball-handling and his speed to weave through traffic while beating defenses down the floor before they can set. In the half court, he’s crafty off the dribble and can set the table for teammates off ball screens and penetration. 

He’s had less success as a scorer, though he’s still averaging 15.4 points and 7.2 free-throw attempts per game. Fox puts pressure on the interior defense with his quickness and athleticism, but he’s struggled outside the lane: He’s made just 29.2 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com, one of 11 threes and 38.3 of his total field-goal attempts.

Fox appears lighter than the 187 pounds the Wildcats list him at, and unless he starts knocking down jumpers consistently, he’s going to have a tough time scoring efficiently. At the other end, Fox is a strong on-ball defender but still needs to learn team concepts.

“If he catches up defensively, he’ll play every minute he can be out there,” head coach John Calipari told Cats Illustrated’s Derek Terry. “But you can’t just be out there.”

Fox’s defense isn’t as concerning as his perimeter game and his frame. Athleticism, passing, attacking, defensive potential and his correctable weakness (shooting) should still cement Fox into this year’s top 20.

Offseason draft projection: Top 10

Current draft projection: Mid-first round

      

Malik Monk (Kentucky, SG, 6’3″, Freshman)

Key numbers: 17.2 PPG, 47 percent FG, 43.2 percent 3PT

Malik Monk’s jumper and athleticism have unsurprisingly fueled his scoring attack. Productive and efficient while averaging 17.2 points per game on 47 percent shooting, he’s had success playing the same role Jamal Murray excelled in at Kentucky.

Having hit 16 threes in just five contests, Monk has a perimeter game that looks deadly and convincing. He’s shown he can catch fire and make deep shots in bunches. The fact he’s money from outside helps diminish some concerns tied to his 6’3″ size and 6’3″ wingspan, …

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