- Commissioner’s statement on Ventura, Marte
- Ronnie O’Sullivan: Masters champion ‘felt so vulnerable’ in final
- Arron Fletcher Wins 2017 WSOP International Circuit Marrakech Main Event ($140,224)
- Smith challenges Warner to go big in India
- Moncada No. 1 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 2B Prospects list
- Braves land 2 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 2B Prospects list
- Kingery makes MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 2B Prospects list
- New Zealand wrap up 2-0 after Bangladesh implosion
- Mathews, Pradeep, Gunathilaka to return to Sri Lanka
- Elliott hopes for rain for Poli
Forecasting 10 potential SP value changes
- Updated: November 23, 2016
Bad habits are hard to break.
Although fantasy owners have a wide range of advanced metrics available, many remain reliant on ERA as a tool for predicting future performance. While ERA certainly has some predictive value, owners would be wise to recognize a pitcher’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) when judging his likelihood of helping fantasy teams in future starts. FIP seeks to provide a more accurate pitcher-assessment tool by removing variables such as defensive support, batted-ball luck and sequencing of hits.
The following 10 pitchers could experience different fortunes next season if their ERAs move closer to their 2016 FIPs.
Brandon Finnegan, Reds: Finnegan found some success in 2016 — his first season as a full-time starter — producing a 3.98 ERA on the strength of a 2.93 mark after the All-Star break. But the left-hander was much less impressive from a fielding-independent standpoint, recording a 5.23 FIP due to troubles with home runs (1.5 HR/9 rate) and free passes (4.4 BB/9 rate). As a result, the 23-year-old is a potential bust candidate for ’17 mixed-league owners that expect him to be a dependable asset.
Cole Hamels, Rangers: Hamels had great success this past season, going 15-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 200 strikeouts across 200 2/3 innings. But the southpaw also experienced a decline in the control department (career-worst 3.5 BB/9 rate) that could prove troublesome going forward. Having shown a susceptibility to the long ball across 44 starts with the Rangers (1.1 HR/9 rate), the 32-year-old may need to minimize free passes to keep his 2017 ERA from trending toward his 3.94 FIP from last season.
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs: Hendricks enjoyed a magical 2016 campaign, posting the lowest ERA (2.13) and the second-best WHIP (0.98) in the Majors. The righty outpitched his 3.25 FIP by regularly inducing weak contact in front of a Cubs squad that led the Majors by a wide margin with a .731 defensive efficiency ratio. While duplicating last season’s stats will be a tall task, the 26-year-old has the skills and stellar defensive support to remain eminently successful in ’17.
Tanner …
