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Sell high? Schwarber trade could return elite long-term pitching
- Updated: November 23, 2016
It’s entirely possible that no matter what he does for the rest of his career, Kyle Schwarber’s star will never shine brighter than it currently does. You know the story by now: After missing nearly the entire season due to a serious knee injury, Schwarber made it back in time for the World Series, then reached base 10 times in 20 plate appearances. It will be one of the enduring memories of the historic Chicago title run. It may define Schwarber forever.
It’s also why we propose something that will probably be considered akin to blasphemy on the North Side — the Cubs should at least consider exploring trades for Schwarber this offseason. Why? Because the Legend of Schwarber is at an all-time high, and the Value of Schwarber may never catch up.
The sheer horror most Cubs fans are likely experiencing as they read that probably confirms that theory. Yes, Schwarber is an immensely talented young hitter. No, he’s not the most valuable player in baseball or really close to it. In his brief career, he’s been 29 points better than average on offense, with little defensive value. For 2017, Steamer projects him to be 29 points better than average on offense, with little defensive value. That comes out to about three Wins Above Replacement, which is solidly above-average/borderline star — think Manny Machado without the defense, or what Hanley Ramirez provided in 2016.
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“Wait,” fans will protest, “Theo Epstein said Schwarber wouldn’t be traded,” but that argument doesn’t hold water. For one, Epstein is also on the record as saying he doesn’t believe in true untouchables. For another, it should be beyond clear by now that public statements from executives are hardly iron-clad legal contracts. Remember when the Yankees told Andrew Miller he wouldn’t be traded? Or when Dave Roberts insisted Clayton Kershaw wasn’t available for Game 5 of the National League Division Series? Or when reports indicated the same Cubs told Starlin Castro he wouldn’t be traded last winter? Of course you do.
None of this is suggesting that Schwarber isn’t valuable. He is. None of this means the Cubs should give him away. They shouldn’t. But think about how the Cubs’ roster is set up for the next few years. With Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, and others, they’re deep in young, controllable offensive talent. But starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and John Lackey are free agents after 2017, and Jon Lester, as great as he is, turns 33 in January. Looking at the Top 15 Cubs prospects at MLBPipeline.com, there’s not a single pitcher who has spent a full season above Class A ball. Kyle Hendricks is going to need some help in the future.
So it’s not controversial to say that the Cubs could use a …
