Fantasy Football Week 12 Cheat Sheet: Flex Rankings, Projections for Waiver Adds

There is little room for margin of error at this point in the fantasy football season.

Many leagues are just a week or two away from the start of their fantasy playoffs, and every lineup decision is critical when it comes to winning or losing on a weekly basis.

While the danger for overthinking a start-him-or-bench-him decision is always a possibility, we remain steadfast in the belief that the more accurate information we have, the better off we are.

With a full schedule of 16 games on tap for Week 12, we have the opportunity to choose the best and healthiest players this week. 

While the usual running back studs such as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell and the Arizona Cardinals’ David Johnson appear well-situated for excellent games in Week 12 against the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons, respectively, our top choice is Melvin Gordon of the San Diego Chargers.

Gordon has been a dramatically different player in his second year than he was in 2015. There was a certain timidity to his game as a rookie, as it seemed like the last thing he wanted to do was make a mistake that would put him in the coaches’ dog house.

That attitude has disappeared in 2016, as Gordon has been attacking opposing defenses without fear, and that has helped the Chargers significantly.

While San Diego has blown a number of fourth-quarter leads this year, Gordon has run for 838 yards and nine touchdowns. Some analysts may point to his 3.9 yards per carry mark and downgrade him, but that’s a further example of the aggressiveness he has shown this year. He wants the ball on all occasions, and he has helped the Chargers grow into the eighth-ranked offensive team in the league.

Gordon is also a viable pass-receiver who has caught 33 passes for 346 yards and two more touchdowns. We like him to have a big day against a Houston Texans defense that is likely to be fatigued and not in the best frame of mind after blowing a fourth-quarter lead Monday night against the Oakland Raiders.

Could Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi do it again and break through the 200-yard mark for the third time this season? It seems like a legitimate possibility as the Dolphins host the woebegone San Francisco 49ers in Week 12.

The Dolphins have turned their season around and have won five games in a row, and that reversal of fortune started in Week 6, when the Dolphins beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-15 and Ajayi ran for 204 yards. 

Ajayi followed that with a 214-yard effort the following week against the Buffalo Bills, and he has rushed for 802 yards this season with six touchdowns and nine runs of 20 yards or more. Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus noted Ajayi’s impressive after-contact production:

Jay Ajayi is averaging 3.5 yards per carry AFTER contact this season. Todd Gurley is averaging 3.1 yards per carry total.

— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) November 17, 2016

The 49ers have lost nine games in a row since opening the season with a victory over the Los Angeles Rams, and they rank 32nd against the run. Ajayi is going to torment the weary 49ers.

Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray should also be in a position to succeed this week as the Titans go on the road to face the Chicago Bears.

Head coach John Fox has a mess on his hands in Chicago, as injuries and suspensions have riddled his team. Wideout Alshon Jeffery and linebacker Jerrell Freeman have been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs in each of the last two weeks (h/t ESPN.com’s Jeff …

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