NFL1000: Is Derek Carr the NFL’s Next Great Quarterback?

On Sunday afternoon, the Oakland Raiders set an NFL record with 23 penalties for 200 yards. They beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-24 in overtime despite that ignominious mark, setting their record at 6-2 for the season, in part because third-year quarterback Derek Carr set a franchise record with 519 passing yards, completing 40 of 59 passes for four touchdowns and no interceptions. It’s a performance that put Carr above all the Raiders greats at the position, at least in that one stat column—everyone from Daryle Lamonica to Ken Stabler to Jim Plunkett to Rich Gannon—and it has people asking if it’s time to rank Carr as one of the handful of best quarterbacks in the league.

Certainly, he’s no one-game wonder. On the season, Carr has completed 66.3 percent of his passes (214 of 323 passes) for 2,321 yards, 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. That puts him on pace for MVP-level numbers—428 completions in 646 attempts for 4,642 yards, 34 touchdowns, and six picks. He currently ranks third in Pro Football Focus’ quarterback rankings behind Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, fourth in traditional quarterback rating behind Ryan, Brees and Matthew Stafford, and he came into the Tampa Bay game ranked sixth in Football Outsiders’ season-cumulative metrics, and eighth in FO’s play-to-play numbers. One would assume both of those numbers will take a tick up after Carr’s performance against the Bucs.

Carr has come a long way since he came into the league in the second round of the 2014 draft out of Fresno State—the same draft class that gave us Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater, all of whom were selected before Carr. Bortles is currently trying to work things out with a performance coach, Manziel will most likely never see the NFL again after an avalanche of off-field issues, and Bridgewater is out for at least the rest of the 2016 season after suffering a gruesome knee injury in late August. Carr is the lone 2014 quarterback draftee with a clear path to success, and he’s on a team with a general manager in Reggie McKenzie who’s done a lot of great work to surround Carr with estimable talent.

Carr has had two offensive coordinators—Greg Olson in his rookie season, and Bill Musgrave for the last two seasons. Musgrave is known for creating quarterback-friendly situations, and he’s done that in Oakland. The Raiders present everything from multi-tight end power formations to five-wide sets, and Carr is able to handle it all.

“The familiarity is important,” Musgrave said in August, of Carr returning to the same offense for the first time in his short NFL career. “He doesn’t have to learn a new language, and he’s been around the block once before. He’s able to take it to the next level, to take it to the graduate level from undergrad, where he was last year… “He can put his spin on things and solve his own problems almost before the problems emerge at the line of scrimmage.”

True, but Musgrave has also installed a ton of first-read options—specifically short passes—which allow Carr to avoid reading the field on every play, and keep him out of pressure situations to a large degree. The route concepts have opened up over time, and Carr’s deep passing has done the same. In his rookie year, per Pro Football Focus, he completed just 15 of 71 passes over 20 yards in the air for 565 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. His 23.9% accuracy rate on such throws was by far the worst among quarterbacks who took at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps—for perspective, Ryan led the league that year with a 56.5% hit rate.

Last season, he completed …

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