2016 NFL Draft: Mason Rudolph Is the Rising Passer in a Sinking QB Class

Nine NFL franchises have a 2-4 record or worse as we enter Week 7 of the regular season. With the magic number to make the playoffs usually landing around 10 wins, that means those squads, at worst, have to go 8-2 down the stretch, winning games at nearly two-and-a-half times their current rate to make the postseason.

For all intents and purposes, those teams are out of the playoff hunt in mid-October, meaning their fanbases will soon flock to mock drafts to fill their need for hope in their franchises moving forward. In the college football season’s first month, three big-name quarterbacks were on the top of everyone’s list, but each has taken a stumble, while one, Mason Rudolph of Oklahoma State, is building steady momentum, looking like the potential “riser” of the 2017 draft class.

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Before explaining why Rudolph may wind up as a first-round pick next April, we first need to dig into the landscape of quarterback prospects in college football.

Immediately after Deshaun Watson’s title-game performance against Alabama, which nearly knocked off Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide on the largest stage the sport has to offer, the Clemson Tiger was crowned the top passing prospect eligible for the 2017 class.

Unfortunately, Watson and the Tigers have both had stumbles in the first month and a half of the regular season. Last year, Clemson only played in four one-score matches over 15 games during its 14-1 season. This year, the Tigers have had four heart-stopping games, against Auburn in the season-opener, Group of Five Troy, Louisville and most recently their overtime match with North Carolina State.

The Tigers lost just two draftable players on the offensive side of the ball in receiver Charone Peake and running back Zac Brooks, both seventh-round picks, between last January and now, and they got back Mike Williams, a potential first-round receiver who missed almost all of 2015 due to a neck injury. Watson is playing with equal or more talent this year, but he has visibly regressed, which has translated to Clemson’s weekly battle to dig themselves out of a hole and on Watson’s stat sheet.

Here is what Watson looks like from an efficiency perspective over his three years playing college football.

In just about every way imaginable, Watson is worse in 2016 than he was in 2015.

The other quarterback who was thought about highly heading into this season was Miami’s Brad Kaaya. A lot of the hype around Kaaya’s pro prospects had to do with two factors: First, he had a leg up on the rest of college football by starting as a true freshman for a Power Five program, and, second, he was matched up with Mark Richt, the former head coach of Georgia and a former Hurricanes quarterback who groomed Matthew Stafford into a first overall pick.

The problem with that line of thinking flashed early, though. Stafford was never thought of as a refined quarterback, and it wasn’t until he was a 27-year-old under Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter that he finally “got it.”

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Stafford was largely drafted because of his raw tools, which is the same reason he was ranked as a five-star passer and the nation’s top high school prospect in the 2006 recruiting class, according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. Little of Stafford’s perceived success had to do with Richt’s coaching, and Kaaya simply doesn’t have the physical tools to live and die off his talent in the ACC, let alone in the NFL.

Stafford was Richt’s last full-time NFL starting quarterback he’s coached, and before him, the last passer to start significant games in the NFL after being coached by Richt in college was Chris Weinke, who dates back to the 2000 Florida State Seminoles. Kaaya has yet to flash that potential we were promised, and that is slowly dragging him down the media’s big boards.

DeShone Kizer of Notre Dame, who wasn’t even the named starting quarterback for the Irish through the summer, is the last major passer at the top of most early mock drafts. Kizer has shown flashes of Jameis Winston-like talent, but Notre Dame’s now 2-5 season may drop an anchor for his draft stock.

In recent memory, only three first-round quarterbacks have had losing records in their time playing college football: Jared Goff, who has yet to start an NFL game, Jake Locker, who left the NFL after four seasons, and Jay Cutler, this generation’s version of Jeff George. With absolute certainty, you can assume if a Kizer-led Irish miss bowl season for the first time since 2009, it will raise questions during the draft process, if not sooner.

As an individual, Kizer is cooling off after his hot start against the Texas Longhorns, as NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, who both played in the NFL as a defensive back and scouted players in the Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers front office, gave Kizer a C-minus grade for his effort against Stanford, which had previously lost back-to-back …

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