NFL Predictions Week 6: Upset Picks and Projections

Those who leaned on upsets to provide wins in the predictions realm had a great time last weekend.

In Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took down a Carolina Panthers team without Cam Newton. The Detroit Lions managed a win over the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Perhaps most impressive of all, the Atlanta Falcons hit the road and took down the Denver Broncos.

It was an odd week but a lucrative one for those who put in the time and knew where to look.

In hindsight, it can be the same story in Week 6, as plenty of favorites look vulnerable for various reasons, from injury to a bad matchup and beyond. Let’s look at how Las Vegas feels about the week before circling some of the top upsets in red ink.

NFL Week 6 Odds

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Upset Picks L.A. Rams at Detroit (-2.5)

A photo posted by Los Angeles Rams (@rams) on Oct 11, 2016 at 6:33pm PDT

Behind a trio of touchdown passes by quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Lions took down the Eagles in an interesting upset.

Granted, Detroit beat Philly by a single point (24-23)—but it counts. A late field goal and interception helped turn the tide and snap a three-game skid for the Lions.

One can tell by the line that Detroit’s game against the Los Angeles Rams will be a close affair. The Rams surprisingly sit on a 3-2 record, and though last week saw a 30-19 loss to the Buffalo Bills, L.A. has already scored victories over the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks.

Perhaps most interesting about this contest is the plight of Los Angeles lead back Todd Gurley. Hailed as one of the league’s elite backs, he’s been ineffective all season while rushing for 288 yards and three scores on a 2.7 yards-per-carry average.

Pro Football Focus’ Scott Barrett explained just how tough the sledding has been for Gurley behind a poor offensive line:

86.5% of Todd Gurley’s rushing yards have come after contact – the highest rate among all running backs with at least 50 attempts.

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 10, 2016

If he’s going to have a breakout game, though, it figures to come against the Lions, who allow 4.9 yards per carry to opposing backs.

This seems like a matchup nightmare for the Lions. Detroit has already allowed 14 sacks of Stafford, and squaring off against elite defensive tackle Aaron Donald isn’t an easy task. …

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