Jameis Winston Must Improve, but Bucs Need to Help Him Too

It doesn’t take much for young NFL quarterbacks to end up first in a staredown, then in a showdown with one word.

That word? Progress.

It’s a word that can carry a vague meaning for them, the fans and even coaches. On the most basic but fundamentally important level, the lowest bar to be cleared is this one: Don’t look like a rookie beyond the year when you’re actually a rookie.

In that sense, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has failed.

Sometimes, he’s failed spectacularly, like in Week 4 when he threw four interceptions during a loss to the Denver Broncos. And other times, he’s failed while confusing us, like when he opened the season averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, then averaged a career single-game low of 4.7 yards in Week 2.

There hasn’t been a hint of consistency from him in 2016, or seemingly a shred of confidence. It’s all been so rookie-like in the most haunting way possible for a first overall pick.

Which is why another word is being thrown around now in reference to Winston: regression. But that word assumes there was a significant peak for Winston to tumble from. And that simply isn’t true.

The most troubling element of Winston’s early struggles in 2016—highlighted by eight interceptions already—isn’t that we’re seeing them now. No, it’s that we’ve seen this all before, and the routine is becoming familiar in his second season, a time when he should be flying free from his rookie cocoon.

This time, his mass production of crippling turnovers is worse, and as Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times noted, Winston is on an early trajectory to make history. The worst kind of history.

Jameis Winston on pace to throw 32 INTs. Last player to throw 30 INTs? Vinny Testaverde in second season with #Bucs. He threw 35 in 1988.

— Thomas Bassinger (@tometrics) October 4, 2016

The mirror image shown when we put the beginning of Winston’s 2016 season next to the same four-game period in 2015 is the sort of picture that should be displayed on front lawns alongside witches and goblins for Halloween.

In 2015, he quickly received a cold welcome to the NFL with a four-interception game against a strong Carolina Panthers defense in Week 4. In 2016, he was the recipient of an identical gut punch; this time, the four-pick outing came against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.

In 2015, Winston’s completion percentage spiraled below 50.0 in two of his first four starts and sat at 55.0 overall heading into Week 5. He also had a passer rating of just 71.0.

In 2016, Winston has finished games with a completion percentage at 51.9 (Week 2) and 48.6 (Week 4). His overall completion percentage is tied for 31st among quarterbacks who have taken at least 25 percent of their teams’ snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. And his passer rating is a lowly 72.5.

A lack of change or something resembling forward baby steps between his first and second year means Winston is losing his battle to establish any kind of progress. But his stumbling start gets more jarring when we look past the similarities to 2015.

At this time a year ago, he had at least recorded one interception-free game. That definitely falls under the tiny and ant-like positive-step category. It’s not nothing, though, and worth noting because we’re still waiting on Winston’s first game without being responsible for a turnover in 2016.

Including his two lost fumbles, he’s committed 10 turnovers, which is two ahead of this point in 2015. A year ago, he had also thrown an interception on only 2.8 percent of his pass attempts, a rate that’s spiked to 4.5 percent now.

He reached his 2016 total turnover number in lightning-quick time, too. Winston has been efficient with his turnover generosity, and as USA Today’s Luke Easterling reminds us, he didn’t need four full games to throw his eight interceptions:

Jameis Winston threw 15 INTs as a rookie in 2015. He’s thrown eight in the first 14 quarters of 2016. #Bucs #NFL

— Luke Easterling (@LukeEasterling) October 2, 2016

There’s no way to polish eight …

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