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UFC 204 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Bisping vs. Henderson 2
- Updated: October 6, 2016
The middleweight title picture in the Ultimate Fighting Championship is about to get weird. Newly minted middleweight champion Michael Bisping at UFC 204 on Saturday in Manchester, England, will defend his belt for the first time in his home country against Dan Henderson, who knocked him senseless seven years ago at UFC 100. “The Count” was long considered past the point of being a serious title contender, but “The Ultimate Fighter 3” winner has since experienced a late-career resurgence that culminated in a first-round knockout of Luke Rockhold at UFC 199 in June. This will be the first time Bisping fights three times in a year since 2010. It will also be his 27th fight in the UFC, which will tie him with Frank Mir and Tito Ortiz for the most all-time.It is not often that a single-fight winning streak earns a crack at the title, but that is exactly where Henderson finds himself. The 46-year-old is a legend of the sport, though he has not won back-to-back fights since 2011. The former two-division Pride Fighting Championships titleholder is 2-2 since dropping back to middleweight in 2015. His last fight was a second-round knockout of Hector Lombard, which happened the same night that Bisping claimed the title. Prior to that, “Hendo” was 2-6 over the course of four years and hardly in the title hunt. This will be his second fight of the year and quite possibly the final fight of his storied, decades-long career. This is not the average title fight, but it is an intriguing matchup for several narrative and stylistic reasons. Here is what the Tale of the Tape has to say: Fair warning: Age permeates every analytic angle in this fight. You have to give the anthropometric edge to Bisping. Although being taller with a shorter reach typically does not bode well for a fighter, the extra nine years of wear and tear on Henderson almost certainly negates his two-inch reach advantage. Bisping has never been a stellar athlete, whereas Henderson was a two-time Olympian, but an above-average 37-year-old athlete with 13 years of competition behind him is surely in better physical condition than a 46-year-old with more than 20 grueling years of high-level competition. With nearly 84 years shared between them, this is the oldest title fight in the history of the UFC. Usually there would be something to say about an experience advantage, but it is hard to say one has an edge over the other in this regard. Henderson has been fighting professionally for seven more years, but Bisping has logged more in-cage UFC minutes than anyone else, except for Frankie Edgar and Georges St. Pierre. The final stat of which to make note is the layoff. Of course, Bisping and Henderson fought last on the same night; however, there are some differences that could play out meaningfully on this fight. First is obviously the age difference. It is very possible that three months to rest from the last fight and train for …
