NBA Tiers of Contention: Teams with a Chance to Win the Crown in 2016-17

There is a school of thought in the NBA that if you enter the season with a shot at winning the championship, that’s all you can ask for.

As Kevin Durant will tell you, however, not every championship opportunity is the same as another.

Nevertheless, what follows is a list of 10 teams that have some chance. It might take an injury to Durant, Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving for certain teams to have much chance, but the following 10 are at least in a place where they can dream.

The other 20 teams we’ve listed in our previous training-camp previews—kindly referred to as the bronze (bottom) and silver (middle) tiers of the NBA in this Olympic year—can’t even rightly dream.

So these 10 teams are as good as gold entering the season, even if there will only be two on that final platform at the end.

    

GOLD MEDAL TIER

10. Oklahoma City Thunder

What’s going on here?

The default sentiment is that Durant left Russell Westbrook behind, and that’s that for OKC. Such thinking is simplistic and best left to the casual fan, not anyone who understands just how good Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo are at valuable little things that help guys around them. Adams’ profile already increased during the 2015-16 playoffs, but with Westbrook as his example, Oladipo can become even more of an all-purpose bulldog in Oklahoma City. This is a nice group of young players who get a version of Westbrook that will be fired up even by Westbrook standards.

    

What would make this season a success?

Normally, with a lengthy string of deep playoff runs, Thunder fans would be rather spoiled. But with KD gone and expectations lower, a special season may be harder to achieve but easier to come by. Westbrook will have to be unbelievable, but if he can stay healthy and his young teammates expand their games, a playoff appearance is well within the Thunder’s reach. Ideally, there would be a matchup against Durant’s Warriors with at least one victory in the series, too. That’s quite a ways from playing into June, but it’s a lot better than becoming a copy of the post-LeBron Cavaliers.

    

Who’s the most interesting player on the team?

The offbeat Adams, 23, is the kind of person who insists he’s just a regular guy even when he’s doing inspirational things. That’s what made it easier for the Thunder to see how Serge Ibaka was kind of the opposite: a guy who thought he was better than he really was. Adams takes pride in subtle, unnoticed excellence, and the Thunder will be a daunting defensive team with him asserting his will more in the paint.

    

9. Toronto Raptors

What’s going on here?

It was thrilling last season to have the Raptors in contention for a title. Dropping off this year would be a real downer for Toronto. But in an improved Eastern Conference, the Raptors will need a lot more from Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll to keep pace. Rest assured that opposing coaches will plan much better this season to take away DeMar DeRozan’s strengths.

    

What would make this season a success?

Expectations are CN Tower-high after Kyle Lowry and DeRozan gave Toronto two local heroes for the city to host the All-Star Game, then a run to the Eastern Conference Finals…then a pair of gold medals with Team USA (which serve as some small consolation for Team Canada not qualifying for Rio). Nothing short of an NBA Finals appearance would top all of that. It won’t be easy, though. Jared Sullinger is here and Bismack Biyombo is not, which threatens to rob Dwane Casey’s crew of its defensive identity. Still, the top half of the East is pretty flexible, which should prevent the Raptors from any sort of precipitous slide.   

    

Who’s the most interesting player on the team?

Lowry got a lot of face time with the aforementioned star turns in the past year, but his future has been an under-the-radar issue. He can (and pretty obviously will) opt out of his contract after the season. How hard should Lowry go this season when an undersized go-getter such as him could begin to fall off as soon as he hits age 31? How much should he save himself for the playoffs this time? And will the Raptors dig deep into their pockets to retain a player who disappeared for a stretch of the playoffs last year?

    

8. Boston Celtics

What’s going on here?

The presumed top contender in the East for Cleveland’s throne, general manager Danny Ainge and the Celtics should be awfully proud of where they sit despite so many failed home run swings. Al Horford will indeed make the game easier for his teammates, but many inside the NBA wonder if everyone’s roles might be somewhat muddled by how much expectations have risen for Boston now. That said, many of those same insiders are sold that head coach Brad Stevens will figure out a way to keep it going despite talent that still isn’t daunting.

    

What would make this season a success?

Taking another step. Horford’s all-purpose presence upgrades a frontcourt that already advanced with Jae Crowder’s emergence at small forward. If the backcourt is better, look out. Considering how well Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley played last season, asking them just to be as good might be too much. But if Marcus Smart starts to shoot straight, it won’t matter if Thomas and Bradley aren’t quite as sharp. Still, the 5’9″ Thomas remains the offensive fulcrum, a role in which he’ll be tested like never before this season. The last pick in the 2011 draft will find a steady diet of the traps and bigger wing defenders he encountered in last year’s playoffs. Now 27, Thomas faces a daunting task to be the top scorer on a title contender, especially a more—not less—efficient one.

    

Who’s the most interesting player on the team?

It’d be great for the NBA if the storied Celtics keep getting better—and if a former nobody such as Crowder keeps being their heart. Acquired in the Rajon Rondo trade from Dallas, Crowder will get to show his defensive tenacity (and underrated offense) against all sorts of top small forwards if the Celtics are playing into June.

    

7. Detroit Pistons

What’s going on here?

Continuity can be boring, but it can occasionally sneak up on a league when a team has enough talent to go with it. After making their big move last February to bring in Tobias Harris, Stan Van Gundy’s Pistons had a relatively quiet summer following a first-round playoff exit last spring. Detroit is still positioned for a move forward, and it won’t necessarily take that much to finish ahead of Boston: The Celtics had 48 victories to the Pistons’ 44 a year …

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