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Fantasy Football Week 5: Flex Rankings, Waiver-Wire Targets and Projections
- Updated: October 3, 2016
We’re nearly a month into the 2016 NFL season, which means we’ve also gotten through nearly four weeks of fantasy football. There might not be many things we know for certain at this point, but we do know that the fantasy world is ripe with the unexpected.
There were some fantasy disappointments in Week 4, to be sure. New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski seems closer to being fully healthy, but he only caught one pass for 11 yards. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford failed to produce good numbers against a Chicago Bears defense that had previously been laughable.
Stafford produced just 213 yards passing and a pair of turnovers.
Of course, there were some positive surprises too. Did anyone expect Atlanta Falcons receiver Julio Jones to have a strong day against the Carolina Panthers defense? Well, sure. Did anyone expect him to go off for 300 yards and a touchdown?
Probably not.
What does all of this mean for the looming fifth week of fantasy? On a game-to-game basis, not a whole lot. However, there are some trends that are beginning to emerge as the season rolls on. We’re going to use those trends, along with the rest of what we’ve seen on the field, to help analyze upcoming fantasy matchups.
We’ll be looking at each fantasy skill position and defenses, along with Week 5 point projections, courtesy of NFL.com. We’ll also examine some of the best and worst plays at each skill position.
First, though, let’s look ahead to the upcoming slate of games.
Quarterbacks
Boom: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts continue to struggle in 2016. The team cannot seem to find an identity on defense or a regular rhythm on offense. After losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, the Colts fall to 1-3 and are rated just 29th overall as a team by Pro Football Focus.
However, a lack of team success hasn’t prevented Colts quarterback Andrew Luck from finding his fair share of fantasy success. Luck has already passed for 1,147 yards and eight touchdowns this season with just three interceptions.
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This week, Luck and the Colts host the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense held its own against Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions on Sunday, but the unit has generally been inconsistent this season. Chicago has surrendered an average of 24.2 points per game and is rated just 16th in overall defense by Pro Football Focus.
Add in the fact that Luck regularly finds himself in quarterback duels—and could find himself in one again in Week 5—and signs point to a strong day for the Colts’ cornerstone.
Bust: Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans
The Houston Texans spent big to secure the services of Brock Osweiler this past offseason. In return, the team has gotten a strong-armed, if inconsistent, gunslinger in return. He has passed for 949 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions.
It’s worth noting, of course, that Osweiler still doesn’t have a full season of starting experience—even if the quarterback won’t use that as an excuse.
“I don’t use my lack of starts as an excuse for anything,” Osweiler said, per Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle. “I expect myself to play at an extremely high level. I have great confidence in my abilities and what I can do, and I have great confidence in the teammates around me to help me do my job.”
Confidence is great and all, but Osweiler is going up against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5. The Vikings, who are ranked second in scoring defense (13.3 points per game allowed), have already made Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton look below average this season. Expect Osweiler to be in for a long day in Week 5.
Sleeper: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
The jury is still out on whether or not Marcus Mariota can be a franchise quarterback for the Tennessee Titans. The second-year man definitely hasn’t been a fantasy star—in part because of turnovers (he has eight already this year).
Mariota does draw an interesting matchup with the Miami Dolphins. Miami is rated just 26th in pass coverage by Pro Football …
