Make it Makahiki in the Arc

Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the Qatar Prix de l’Abbaye and picks out the key statistics.

The effect of the draw is something of an unknown quantity in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with jockeys suggesting that it is not so significant over 12 furlongs at Chantilly as it is over 10.

A low draw has been a significant advantage at Longchamp over the years but may not be such a factor here which will be good news for Japanese Derby winner Makahiki who has landed 14 of 16.

The key statistic in terms of this year’s renewal is the age factor with five year old winners having been few and far between; Marienbard (2002) and Tony Bin (1988) were the last two while Orfevre was a beaten favourite as a five-year-old in 2013.

Postponed, then, has to be taken on and he takes up a sizeable percentage of the market.

Winning form over 12 furlongs at the top level has been an important factor which is no great surprise and doesn’t help to significantly reduce the number of potential candidates, especially if you are lenient towards the likes of New Bay and Savoir Vivre.

Highland Reel and Harzand have to bounce back from relatively poor runs although the latter does have at least one valid excuse and it’s not hard to imagine this test showing him in a better light. The vibes are positive but no recent winner has finished worse than fifth in their prep and that horse was Workforce whose ‘prep’ came in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

Fillies have a fantastic recent record which is reflected in the Prix Vermeille being a notable pointer and Left Hand has to be accorded respect but it …

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